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000
FXUS61 KCAR 170543
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
143 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure approaches tonight, then crosses the region
Wednesday through Thursday. An occluded front approaches Friday,
crosses the region Saturday, then exits across the Maritimes
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
143 AM Update: The surface axis of a ridge of high pressure is
currently situated over southern New England, and will continue
to gradually shift east into our area through the night tonight.
Lingering mid-level moisture remains across much of the
forecast area, leading to a stratus deck tonight. As high
pressure continues to build into the area, these clouds will
begin to thin and dissipate, leading to a return of clear skies.
Until then, the stratus have insulated the surface from
efficient radiational cooling, so temperatures are not falling
quite as fast as previously forecast, and therefore the
temperature forecast was adjusted slightly to account for this
warmer solution.

Previous Discussion:
Upper level low pressure remains across the northern
Maritimes tonight. A disturbance rotating around the upper low
will cross the region early tonight. Isolated showers are
possible across mostly northern areas early tonight. Otherwise,
expect mostly/partly cloudy skies across northern areas tonight.
Across Downeast areas, expect partly cloudy skies early tonight
then mostly clear. The upper low slowly drifts east across the
Maritimes Wednesday, while surface/upper level ridging build
toward the region. Moisture wrapping around the Maritimes low,
along with diurnal cloud development, will produce partly sunny
skies across northern areas Wednesday. Mostly/partly sunny skies
are expected Downeast Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight will
range from the upper 20s to around 30 north, to the lower to mid
30s Downeast. High temperatures Wednesday will range from
around 50 to the lower 50s north, to the mid to upper 50s
Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep layered ridging builds over the region Wednesday night and
Thursday, remains over the area Thursday night, then exits to
the east on Friday. Subsidence under the ridge will keep the
area dry through at least midday Friday and highly likely
through the day on Friday. For now the 12z ECMWF is an outlier
in trying to bring in some precipitation to western zones Friday
afternoon. Prefer dry solution of high resolution models as it
is more consistent with the overall synoptic and meso-scale
pattern.

As a result expect the low levels beneath the subsidence
inversion to be well mixed, so have undercut dewpoints during
the day and gone with the high end of guidance for high
temperatures. For lows, with minimal cloud cover and light
winds, went towards the low end of guidance.

Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night should be near to
slightly above normal and highs Thursday and Friday should be
around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The region is under diffluent SW flow aloft Friday night, which
should allow for showers then a steadier light rain to develop
from NW to SE. The region remains under SW flow aloft, with some
passing shortwaves Saturday, so the precipitation should again
become more showery in nature as the day progresses.

The axis of a northern stream trough passes Saturday night
bringing isolated showers, except for scattered showers being
possible along the eastern boarder with Canada early in the
evening.

A series of northern stream shortwaves cross the region Sunday
through Monday. The initial shortwave on Sunday still could
have enough residual moisture to work with to yield some
isolated showers across the North, otherwise it should be dry.

SW flow sets up aloft Monday night and Tuesday, but with
relatively dry low levels and no significant shortwaves progged
to be embedded in the flow, it should be dry.

Lows should be above normal Friday night, followed by near to
slightly below normal temperatures Saturday through Sunday
night. Above normal temperatures return Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR cigs through the rest of the night, with OVC
becoming FEW to SKC into the early morning hours, especially at
southern terminals. Brief MVFR possible at KFVE early this
morning before skies begin to clear in the St. John Valley.
Another round of BKN stratus will move in through the
afternoon, but cigs are expected to remain VFR. Skies will clear
into Wednesday night across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts
will continue to decrease through the rest of the night, then
become NW 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts through Wednesday
afternoon. Winds will become light and variable Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night-Friday...VFR. NE winds G15-20KT possible
Wednesday evening. S winds G15-20KT possible Friday afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday...MVFR or lower possible. S-SW winds
G15-20KT possible.

Saturday night-Sunday...Becoming VFR Saturday night. W winds
G15-20KT possible Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Sub-SCA conditions are likely Wednesday night
through Friday. SCA conditions are possible on the coastal ocean
waters Friday night, with gusts to around 25 kt possible,
however this is not certain. Sub-SCA conditions are then
probable on all waters Saturday-Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/Maloit
Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/Maloit