000
FXUS62 KCHS 251005
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
605 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will drop south of the area today. High pressure
builds back into the region late week through the early part of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast is in good shape and is capturing trends well. No
changes are needed for the sunrise update.

Today: A weak surface trough will move steadily south through
the area today as high pressure ever so slowly builds in from
the north. A zonal flow aloft will gradually more anticyclonic
through the day as subtropical ridging begins to build to the
west. Within a weak surface pressure pattern, a modest sea
breeze circulation is likely to develop along the beaches by
early afternoon and move steadily inland. Low-level thickness
schemes support highs in the lower-mid 80s inland this afternoon
with cooler conditions closer to the beaches. A band of clouds
around 6-8 kft will gradually mix out as it drops to the south.
Mostly sunny skies will prevail for much of the day, although
some shallow cumulus could develop across the coastal counties
along/ahead of the sea breeze.

Tonight: Subtropical ridging will steadily build through the
night as surface high pressure builds south. The pressure
gradient looks to slowly tighten overnight as heights build
aloft. This increase in the gradient should keep the boundary
layer from fully decoupling except in the typical more sheltered
areas. An onshore flow coupled with some lingering wind will
keep coastal temperatures somewhat elevated. Lows will range
from the mid-upper 50s well inland to the mid-upper 60s at the
beaches, warmest along the Georgia beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will provide a quiet and pleasant weekend to the
area. The high initially centered to the north on Friday will
gradually sink south to off the Carolina coast on Sunday. Aloft,
ridging will shift east and settle over the region. While a
stray shower cannot be ruled out, lack of forcing will maintain
a dry forecast through the period.

High temperatures remain within a few degrees of normal, generally
in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day. Lows both nights range from
the mid/upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the immediate
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will largely dominate the weather pattern
during the early to middle of next week. A weakening mid level
trough will approach the East coast during the latter half of the
period and bring a front towards the area, but all indications show
that the high pressure should hold firm with the front generally
washing out. The better potential for showers/thunderstorms will be
on Wednesday but even that looks pretty sparse, so PoPs reflect just
isolated coverage at this time. Temperatures will be warm, with
highs peaking in the mid/upper 80s especially Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
26/12z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 27/06z Friday. Shallow cumulus will
develop this afternoon, but will gradually mix out as the sea
breeze moves inland.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: West winds will veer to the north through the day as a
weak surface trough moves south. Winds will then turn onshore
this afternoon as a modest sea breeze circulation takes hold.
Some enhancements along the land/sea interface and Charleston
Harbor are likely to occur with winds becoming gusty mid-late
afternoon. Winds will generally remain 10 kt for less through
day, but will be closer to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt near the
beaches and Charleston Harbor with the sea breeze. Seas will
average 2-4 ft, highest over the Georgia offshore leg 20-60 NM
offshore.

Tonight: Easterly winds will slowly increase overnight in
response to a tightening of pressure gradient from high
pressure building in from the north. Speeds will average 10 kt
from Edisto Beach and points south with 10-15 kt over the South
Santee-Edisto Beach out 20 NM leg. Seas will average 2-4 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: Easterly onshore flow persists through
much of the period, veering more southerly late. Speeds largely
average in the 10-15 knot range, with perhaps a brief peak in
the 15-20 knot range on Friday afternoon. There could be a
period where 6 foot seas impact the far reaches of the outer
Georgia waters Friday night into Saturday, but it looks pretty
marginal for a Small Craft Advisory at this time.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is undergoing electrical maintenance and is
tentatively scheduled to return to service April 26th.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$