745
FXUS64 KCRP 150352
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1052 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate risk of rip currents Wednesday.

- Slight chance (20%) for showers/storms late Wednesday night.

Generally quiet and tranquil weather conditions can be expected
across South Texas tonight through Wednesday under weak ridging
aloft. At the surface, high pressure will continue to progress
eastward through the period leading to a gradual return to a
southeasterly flow overnight. Moisture will rapidly increase
across the area as we head into the Wednesday night period owing
to a more moderate flow developing over the coastal waters. PWATs
are progged to increase to above 2" across some locations late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The combination of the
plentiful available moisture and the arrival of a mid to upper
level disturbance will provide a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late in the period. In terms of temperatures, lows
tonight will be at near normal levels and in the mid 60s to low
70s. The rest of the period temperatures will be well above normal
with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s range, and lows in 70s
areawide. Cloud coverage will increase again tomorrow night.

Along area beaches the rip current risk as been elevated to
Moderate levels for Wednesday in response to a moderate onshore
flow developing with swell heights increasing to around 3-4 feet
with swell periods at 8 seconds. Although tide levels have been
reaching 1.8 feet MSL at the time of high tide across the southern
nearshore waters, no flooding has been observed. Tides will be a
tad lower tomorrow, therefore not anticipating any coastal
flooding hazards at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
  Thursday.

- Elevated heat concerns possible Thursday and again early next week
  for the southern Coastal Plains.

Not much has changed since the previous forecast. A series of
shortwaves will result in the development of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday. With strong instability (CAPE values 3000+
J/kg across portions of South Texas), and ample low level moisture,
expect that thunderstorms could become severe so the Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has included the north and east portions of
our area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. PWATs are expected
to be at or slightly greater than 2.0 inches which could lead to
localized flash flooding. This looks like it will be generally
confined to the northeastern portions of the area, so WPC has
included this in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Rainfall
could continue into Friday as a cold front slides through Central
and eventually...maybe...into South Texas.

Temperatures are expected to warm through the middle of next week.
Thursday and Friday, we will see highs in the upper 80s to upper
90s. While this doesn`t sound too unpleasant, humidity values will
be quite high Thursday which could lead to heat index values
approaching 110 over portions of South Texas. Models have hinted
that the heat risk will be slightly lower over the weekend, likely
due to drier air moving in behind the cold front. This relief will
be short-lived as temperatures increase again early next week,
bringing back heat index values nearing 110.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Similar to last night with limited moisture in the region and high
pressure. The only difference is that the high is now more to the
east, and an area of low pressure is beginning to develop in
northern Mexico. The low will keep the winds breezy in LRD and
COT. The main issue for CRP, ALI, and VCT will be low CIGs and
fog. The winds in the east are dropping off as the 3 eastern sites
are now variable, and with the skies clear, fog is expected to
develop sometime. The guidance would suggest between 08z and 12z,
but based on last night, it could be around 06z and then nothing.
So low confidence in the timing, but have MVFR VSBYs for 08z to 12
or 13z. Otherwise, Wednesday, and Wednesday evening look to be
clear, although MVFR CIGs will begin to encroach on the region
around 06z/THU.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Winds will shift to the southeast tonight and become light
overnight. Weak to moderate onshore flow Wednesday morning will
become more moderate Wednesday afternoon into the night. Moisture
will increase across the waters through the day tomorrow. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday
night through Thursday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow will
continue through the middle of next week, with periods of more
moderate flow expected Thursday across the southern bays and
nearshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    70  91  78  90 /   0   0  20  20
Victoria          66  91  71  88 /   0   0  10  40
Laredo            71  98  78  99 /   0   0  10  10
Alice             68  94  77  94 /   0   0  10  30
Rockport          75  91  78  86 /   0   0  20  30
Cotulla           69  98  76  96 /   0   0  10  20
Kingsville        70  92  78  93 /   0   0  10  20
Navy Corpus       76  90  80  87 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...JSL/86