Text Products for ESF Issued by CTP

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Versions: 1 2 3
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
324 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE
MARCH...

During the winter and spring, the National Weather Service issues a
series of winter and spring Flood Potential Outlooks. These outlooks
estimate the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) across
central Pennsylvania based on a current assessment of the
hydrometeorological factors that contribute to river flooding.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of future river
flooding. It is also important to note that heavy rainfall can
rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall
river flood potential is considered low.

This outlook covers the Susquehanna River Basin including the West
Branch, Juniata, and much of the Middle and Lower Susquehanna
Valley. Also covered are portions of the Upper Allegheny and
Monongahela Basins, including areas in Warren, McKean, Somerset and
Cambria counties.

The flood potential outlook for the period from Thursday, March 14th
through Thursday, March 28th, 2024 is NEAR AVERAGE. Here are the
hydrometeorological factors that went into this outlook:

Current flooding...None.
No flooding is occurring in the region at this time.

Recent precipitation..Above average.
Precipitation over the past 30 days has ranged from 0.5" to 2.0"
above average across Central Pennsylvania.
For the latest precip departures, please see
www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures.

Snow conditions...Average south to slightly below average north.
No snow cover was observed across Central Pennsylvania in mid-March.
Snow data and information sources include the NOAA/NWS Operational
Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (www.nohrsc.noaa.gov)...the US Army
Corps of Engineers...NWS Cooperative Observers...the Community Rain,
Hail and Snow Network (COCORAHS) and others. Snow depth and basin
average water equivalent estimates can be seen at
www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

River Ice...None, which is normal for mid-March.
Follow river ice conditions at https://www.weather.gov/ctp/riverice.

Stream flow conditions...Above average.
For current streamflow conditions, please visit
waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt. Real time water data is available from
the United States Geological Survey by visiting
http://water.usgs.gov.

Soil moisture conditions...West of the Susq Valley, soil moisture is
slightly above average. For the Susq Valley and points east, soil
moisture is above average.
The long term Palmer Drought Severity Index is used to infer deep
soil moisture conditions. The latest chart can be found at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif. For more information, visit
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/ and then click on
U.S. Monitoring.

Ground Water...Near to slightly above average.
To see groundwater levels, visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/gw.

Reservoir Conditions...Near to slightly above average.

Future Weather Conditions...
According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC), the upcoming
6-10 day period should lean towards below average temperatures and
near average precipitation, while the 8-14 day period should lean
towards above average temperatures and precipitation. Visit
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ to view the latest CPC outlooks.

Summary of conditions impacting the flood potential for the period
from March 14th to March 28th, 2024:

Current Flooding...None.
Recent Precipitation...Above average.
Snow Conditions...Slightly below average north to near average
south.
River Ice...None.
Stream Flow Conditions...Above average.
Soil Moisture Conditions...West of the Susq Valley, soil moisture is
slightly above average. For the Susq Valley and points east, soil
moisture is above average.
Ground Water...Near to slightly above average.
Reservoir Conditions...Near to slightly above average.
Future Weather Conditions...The 6-10 day forecast leans towards
below average temperatures and near average precip, while the 8-14
day forecast leans towards above average temperatures and precip.

Again, the overall flood potential for Central Pennsylvania over the
next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE.

The next outlook will be issued on March 28th, 2024.

Additional hydrometeorological information can be found by
visiting the NWS State College webpage at http://weather.gov/ctp.

$$

CJE
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
