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000
FNUS71 KCTP 161723
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Buckaloons RX...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service State College PA
123 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 16.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
Have updated the winds to call for higher gusts at the site.

Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasantly warm today with highs
65-75. Clouds will increase tonight with periods of light rain on
Wednesday. MinRH is forecast to drop between 20-30% this
afternoon with a light wind generally from the west.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 70.
Min Humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing Height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....East around 5 mph shifting to the northwest 5
                    to 8 mph late in the morning, then shifting to
                    the north around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................16 to 32.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  10  10  10  9   9   11  13  15
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  54  61  64  65  67  68  69  68
RH................  57  41  38  34  30  28  27  28
20 FT Wind Dir....  SE  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  N
20 FT Wind Spd....  2   2   2   2   3   3   4   4
20 FT Wind Gust...      4   5   5   6   6   8   8
Mix Hgt (kft).....  2.5 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.2
Transp Wind Dir...  E   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp Wind Spd...  5   5   7   8   7   8   7   7
LVORI.............  2   2   2   1   2   2   2   2
ADI...............  16  16  32  32  32  24  24  24
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers after 3 am.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 47.
Max Humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph
                    early in the evening, then becoming light late
                    in the evening becoming east 5 to 6 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing Height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 8 to 10 mph shifting to the east 9 to
                    14 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 to 12.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  17  19  21  34  48  61  61  60  59  65  70  76
Weather Cov.......                                          ISO ISO
Weather Type......                                          RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  66  61  56  54  52  50  49  48  47  48  48  48
RH................  30  36  45  46  50  52  54  58  60  60  60  63
20 FT Wind Dir....  N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT Wind Spd....  4   4   5   5   4   4   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT Wind Gust...  8   8   10  10  6   6   6   7   8   8   10  10
Mix Hgt (kft).....  3.3 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Transp Wind Dir...  N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE
Transp Wind Spd...  8   9   10  10  9   10  12  13  13  13  13  14
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   2   2
ADI...............  5   5   5   5   5   5   8   8   8   12  12  12
Haines Index......  4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Occasional rain showers
                    through the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1700, then 9-15 strikes.
Max Temperature.....Around 64.
Min Humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing Height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 13 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................15 to 34.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  82  89  95  96  97  98  98  99  100 100 100 100
Weather Cov.......  SCT SCT OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT
Weather Type......  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........                                  SCH SCH SCH SCH
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   5
Temp..............  49  49  50  52  54  55  57  59  60  61  62  62
RH................  63  68  71  74  77  83  80  80  81  78  75  75
20 FT Wind Dir....  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  7   7   7   7   7   7   7   8   8   9   9   9
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  10  10  10  11  12  13  13  14  14  14  14
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5
Transp Wind Dir...  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp Wind Spd...  14  13  13  15  13  15  15  17  20  20  21  21
LVORI.............  2   3   3   3   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI...............  15  15  15  18  18  18  29  29  29  34  34  34
Haines Index......  5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Dangelo
Requested by...Warren SO
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411105.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Paul.clement@usda.gov