057
FXUS63 KDDC 020547
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe thunderstorms expected eastern half of
  southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Very large
  hail and tornadoes are possible.

- Slightly cooler with strong north winds Thursday.

- Widespread accumulating rainfall most likely Friday night and
  Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The ingredients needed for severe thunderstorms were converging
on SW KS at midday. Surface observations showed a pronounced
frontal boundary just north of the KS/OK border, that will be
retreating northward as a warm front through the afternoon.
Exactly how far this warm front advances northward, and exactly
how expansive and unstable the resulting warm sector becomes,
will dictate the severity of the expected storms late this
afternoon/early evening. Mesoanalysis shows strong instability
streaming north from West Texas (rerouted westward around
Oklahoma outflow), and a pronounced triple point (warm
front/dryline intersection) is expected to set up over the SE
DDC CWA at peak heating this afternoon. Strong instability with
CAPE > 3000 J/kg and enhanced storm relative helicity is
expected in this region, with strong convergence near the triple
point helping to overcome convective inhibition. Latest
thinking is thunderstorms will initiate in the vicinity of US
283/DDC after 4 pm, then progress eastward through the southeast
zones into the evening. Most CAMs are aligned along this
scenario, and 12z ARW, which failed to convect previously, now
agrees. Any discrete supercells in the expected environment near
and southeast of DDC will be capable of 2-3" diameter hail and
tornadoes. Storms that parallel the stalled boundary will need
to be watched carefully for locally enhanced tornado potential.
Per SPC coordination, Clark/Comanche/Kiowa counties are some
areas at most risk this afternoon and evening. Shortwave timing
appears favorably timed with a high octane warm sector, the only
question is exactly where the warm sector sets up at max
heating. With questions regarding coverage, kept pops
conservative in the chance category for the eastern zones, but
also included severe wording in the various products.

Strong cold front associated with the passing shortwave is
expected to surge southward after midnight, with north winds
gusting over 30 mph. Additional showers and thunderstorms may
develop in the convergence along this advancing boundary,
preferring the eastern zones again. Consensus of short term
models suggests low stratus will expand in the post frontal
environment, persisting through Thursday morning.

North winds will be strong for much of Thursday, gusting
30-40 mph, ushering in noticeably cooler air. Models show a
net cooling of 6-8C at 850 mb Thursday. With increasing early
May sunshine, temperatures will have no problem warming into
the lower to mid 70s. Winds will veer NEly and diminish quickly
Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Not much time to consider the long term, and accepted the NBM. A
pleasant spring Friday is expected, with afternoon temperatures
in the 70s, partial sunshine, and increasing southeast winds
ahead of the next shortwave. 12z model guidance is optimistic
with the associated cold front passage producing rain in SW KS
Friday night/early Saturday. Indeed, NBM pops peak in the likely
category after midnight Saturday morning. These pops were
accepted, with 12z GEFS probability of QPF > 0.10 inch exceeding
80% for at least the NE 1/2 of the DDC CWA. After one of the
driest Aprils in history, and as short term drought continues to
intensify, we are cautiously optimistic that at least some of us
will get a desperately needed rainfall Friday night. WPC QPF
guidance suggests 0.50-1.0 inch of rain is possible. Marginal 5%
severe wind/hail probability is noted from SPC, but with
nocturnal timing instability should be limited.

Another minor cooldown behind this cold front, with afternoon
temperatures reduced to within a few degrees of 70. Saturday
will be pleasant with a northeast breeze.

12z models continue to show a strong closed cyclone crossing the
Great Basin on Sunday, and ejecting onto the central plains
Monday. Pretrough warm air advection may support some limited
rain opportunity Sunday. Long range models and pattern
recognition suggest another synoptically evident severe weather
episode for the plains Monday afternoon and evening, with the
initiating dryline most likely in the DDC CWA at peak heating
Monday. We will need to monitor the central and especially
eastern zones (central Kansas) for potentially a high end severe
risk Monday. Welcome to May!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will impact HYS terminal
at the onset of this TAF period. The main forecast challenge
thereafter will be strength of north winds behind the
front/outflow boundary and how long any MVFR or worse flight
category will occur behind the front early in the morning. The
best forecast as of this issuance is a 3 to 5 hour period of
1500 to 2500 foot overcast stratus at all terminals with a
gradual improvement in ceiling around or shortly after daybreak.
There will be a chance (20-30%) for 1-2 hours of IFR, however
pinpointing where and exactly when any IFR ceiling will occur is
too difficult to nail down and will likely be brief/isolated. At
any rate, aviation weather will improve as far as flight
category goes by mid to late morning Thursday behind this latest
storm system.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid