353
FXUS63 KDDC 061557
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1057 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-day into the
  afternoon along and east of a line Scott City to Garden City.
  But these storms are expected to increase in severity farther
  east during early to mid afternoon, with very large hail and
  tornadoes expected.

- The western limit of severe weather Monday depends on how
  early in the day storms develop.

- Critical Fire Weather conditions are forecast This Afternoon
  and Tuesday afternoon in the west.

- A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and
  persist for several days.

- There are small chances for rain next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Mesoscale Update...

Weak thunderstorms developed this morning along a dry cold
front in northwest Kansas. Thus far, initiation has not occurred
along or ahead of the true dry line. As a strong upper level
system lifts northeastward in negative tilt fashion by mid-day
and into early afternoon, mid level cooling from 700-500mb will
spread eastward across the front/dryline and help remove a weak
capping inversion overlying the low level moisture. Thus,
daytime heating at low levels along with the mid level cooling
will lead to steepening of low to mid level lapse rates. Initial
storm development will be along the dry cold front from
WaKeeney southward to west of Dodge City. These could contain
damaging winds and large hail; but if these storms are more
linear in nature, then damaging wind would be the main concern.

By early afternoon, the dry front will intersect the dry line
southeast of Dodge City, with the dry front extending northward
from a weak surface low into northern Kansas. A tropical warm
front will also be situated across south central Kansas and will
intersect the dry line. Hodographs are more favorable for
tornadoes along and south and east of a line from Larned to
Greensburg to Coldwater between 3 pm and 6 pm given that mid
level cold advection with mid level backing of the winds are
more subtle than farther north, but still enough to result in
sufficient weakening of the capping inversion. That said, the
various models also indicate some mid level backing across south
central Kansas as far south as Pratt and Greensburg, which
would result in shorter lived tornadoes instead of long tracked
ones. The most favored area for long tracked tornadoes is along
the Oklahoma state line in Barber and Comanche counties. As long
as storms remain discrete along the southern tier, very large
hail to baseball size and larger are possible, especially closer
to the Oklahoma state line given CAPE values in the 2000-3000
j/kg range and favorable shear profile (less mid level backing).
Significant tornadoes are forecast given 0-1 km SRH values in
the 150 to 200 m2/s2 range.

Farther north, stronger mid level backing of the wind in response
to stronger mid level cold advection may result in more of a
linear storm configuration with damaging winds and marginally
severe hail, although brief and significant tornadoes could
still occur with any cells that remain discrete.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Stratus was widespread this morning as moist south southeast
winds provided moisture transport in the boundary layer. The
clouds aided a steady temperature curve overnight as the entire
area still remained in the low 60s as of 2 AM. A broad
baroclinic leaf of cirrus cloud formed across from New Mexico
across western Kansas and Nebraska while the upper synoptic
trough approached the central rockies.

A pacific cold front is poised to overtake the dryline by about
18-19z/1-2pm. Convective allowing models area favor initial
convection developing on the northern periphery of this front,
i.e. southern NE and northern into west central Kansas by around
17 or 18z (noon or 1 pm). This may lead to a few late morning
hail and wind threatening severe storms while the southern
reaches of the forecast area east of 283 remains in the warm
sector, pooling moisture and heating up to drive surface based
CAPE higher into the 2000-3000 J/kg area by the mid afternoon -
meaning greater severe and tornado probability. In the area
covering roughly , southern Stafford county, to Greensburg,
Pratt and the southern reaches of the 183 corridor eastward,
mean STP (significant tornado parameter) ramps up to values
higher than 1, statistically correlated with supercells that
tend to be tornadic. The slowest convective allowing model with
exiting storms from the area ends the event for the DDC area by
6 pm.

On Tuesday the area will be behind the frontal system with
breezy westerly winds  full insolation leading to widespread
warm temperatures in the 80s. The opportunity to outperform is
present with the 75th percentile of the NBM members showing high
approaching 90 degrees in the southern counties  so a 90
degree high temps would not be a surprise around Elkhart or
Liberal. Despite the warm afternoon, the diurnal swing is large
 to the tune of 40 degrees as temperatures are forecast in the
40s over much of the area Tuesday night as a weak dry cold front
moves through the area establishing breezy north wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The remainder of the week is a dry forecast, under light and
generally northerly surface winds. The aforementioned front and
the nature of the weak wind flow looks to cap highs in the
pleasant 70s for each day Wednesday though Saturday. Slight
chances for showers and thunderstorms return by Saturday as
well, however it does not look like a widespread dynamic severe
weather setup at this time. EC and GFS ensemble means both
target the period from Monday/Tuesday through the week for light
precipitation on the 24 hour ensemble Multi-runs. Plenty of
consistency in the last 10 runs or so. The trend looks a little
warmer as well with daily highs trending in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Southeasterly moist upslope surface winds This Morning will
maintain a stratus deck firmly in the IFR category as far east
as Garden City, and perhaps Liberal. Most guidance does indicate
visibility is leaning to remain above the LIFR category, but if
visibility were to drop to one half mile or less  still the
favored area would be the DDC terminal between 10 and 13z, as
the NBM forecasts mean visibility less than one half mile over
south central Kansas. The ceilings will give way to a dryline in
the mid morning hours, which could become the focus for numerous
severe thunderstorms as early as the 15 and 18z timeframe
anywhere form GCK to HYS, and spreading east in a broken line
through mid afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Widespread red flag meteorological conditions are expected each
of the next 2 days across the western half of the area. The
area hasnt been cleared of dry fuels for the season, however
there may be some variability in the greenness withing the
highlighted region. The red flag warning was expanded for all
areas along the highway 23 corridor This Afternoon, with a areal
matching Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday. Areas along the
highway 283 corridor and eastward are considered too green to
continue warnings for the time being.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Finch
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99