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000
FXUS63 KEAX 190542
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering Showers This Afternoon

- Cooler Temperatures Next Few Days

- Multiple Rounds of Precipitation Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The cold front has cleared the area this afternoon but we remain in
mid-level cyclonic flow which is still providing some lift and
generating weak rain showers across the area. The center of the
surface cyclone center has shifted eastward as well. Behind the cold
front, pressure gradient remains strong and will support breezy
northerly winds through the rest of the evening. The main jet streak
with the mid-level low will start lifting back into Canada and will
promote subtle H5 height rises across the Central Plains. This
promotes subsidence across the Central Plains slowly clearing skies
and developing surface anticyclone that pushes toward the area.
Subsidence will arrive later this evening and will begin to clear
skies out and bring an end to the rainfall. With the combination of
northerly flow and clearing skies, temperatures across northern
Missouri are forecast to drop into the mid 30s, which may lead to
the potential for frost. Therefore, a frost advisory has been issued
for northern Missouri overnight into Friday morning. NBM inner-
quartile spread for overnight low temperatures across the north is
between 32F and 36F.

Starting Friday, mid-level flow becomes zonal across most of the
central CONUS and the surface anticyclone will sit over the area.
This will keep temperatures on the cooler side, at least compared to
the past few days. High temperatures on Friday will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s across most of our area. Currently expecting dry
conditions Friday as surface pressure continues to increase, and mid-
level kinematics are not expected to drive any kind of activity.
Most ensemble suites hold less than a 10 percent chance for any
measurable precipitation on Friday. Saturday, mid-level flow remains
generally zonal across the area with a weak short-wave over the
Northern Rockies providing subtle H5 height falls into the Central
Plains, and a few weak vort maxes ejecting eastward ahead of this.
Moisture return will be limited, but this may be just enough forcing
to generate light precipitation in our southwest counties at some
point on Saturday. Ensemble probabilities for measurable
precipitation are between 20 and 30 percent for the southwest third
of our CWA. Deterministic guidance is not overly favorable for QPF,
with amounts generally less than 0.10 of an inch of QPF.
Temperatures Saturday will generally be in the mid 50s, and this is
where the inner-quartile spread amongst NBM member currently lies.

Sunday, the main short-wave previously mentioned moves through the
area as mid-level ridging develops across the Intermountain West and
Front Range. With primarily northerly flow int he low-levels, the
lack of moisture will keep the forecast mostly dry on Sunday, with
ensemble probabilities generally less than 10 percent for any
measurable precipitation. Most deterministic model guidance also
remains dry for Sunday. Temperatures may bump back up into the lower
60s, as the ridging out west helps to turn low-level flow
southwesterly as the center of the surface anticyclone moves
southeast of the region. By Late Sunday, an H5 short-wave enters the
northwestern CONUS and pushes a positively tilted ridge across the
area, while dCVA over the Front Range promotes lee cyclogenesis with
surface pressure falls over the Central Plains. In response to this,
low-level flow from the southwest increases in magnitude and will
provide stronger WAA into the region. By Monday, high temperatures
will start pushing into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Most of Monday
afternoon should remain dry. Eventually though by Monday Night after
the ridge axis has cleared, H5 height falls continue to shift the
surface cyclone eastward and increases convergence. Winds will
continue to back Monday evening into Tuesday and should provide more
moisture transport. Ensemble probabilities increase for measurable
precipitation Monday Night for northern Missouri as this is where
most of the convergence is concentrated. Heading into Tuesday
morning, cold front will move across the area, and precipitation
will spread across most of the forecast area with ensemble
probabilities between 50-60 percent for measurable precipitation.

Overall next week, mid-level synoptic pattern will feature a series
of troughs and ridges traversing the country, which will present
multiple opportunities for rain showers and thunderstorms. Ensemble
probabilities at various points next week are between 60-70 percent
for measurable precipitation. Maximum temperature trends are
generally in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Days of cloud cover and
precipitation will keep temperatures cooler, but as ridge axes move
through and promote WAA, will see temperatures climb back into the
mid 70s. Overall, a typical progressive flow setup for late Spring
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with winds
out of the north around 10 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>006-011.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...HB