050
FNUS74 KEPZ 282354
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for UNIT 74 AREA 3 RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
554 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on April 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

We will generally have a quiet week for fire weather. The winds
the next couple of days will stay well below critical levels. By
the middle of the week we see a little stronger winds, but winds
will still be below critical levels. Min RH`s on Monday will be in
the teens, but by midweek min RH`s will drop to near 10% or even a
little lower. RH recoveries at night will be poor. I don`t see any
strong wind events through the end of the week, but I also don`t
see any chances for rain.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 7 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 7 mph shifting to the west in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (20500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (93400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      1      3      3      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............41     53     61     67     68
RH..............50     31     20     15     13
20 ft wind......NW 5   W 5    SW 7   SW 7   SW 9
20 ft wind gust.7      12     16     16     17
Mix hgt (ft)....3400   7200   7200   8600   8600
Transport wind..NW 7   W 9    W 9    SW 12  SW 12
Haines index....2      2      3      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21     66     66     93     93
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 11 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (86900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........6      6      5      3      3      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............65     54     49     46     43     40
RH..............15     25     29     31     36     41
20 ft wind......SW 10  SW 10  SW 10  W 6    W 6    W 4
20 ft wind gust.20     20     21     12     12     9
Mix hgt (ft)....7900   7900   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..SW 16  SW 16  W 15   W 15   W 11   W 11
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..87     87     6      6      5      5
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......10000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (56000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (125300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........4         3         3         3
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............38        52        66        73
RH..............46        29        15        11
20 FT wind......W 5G10    W 7G15    SW 9G17   SW 10G20
Mix hgt (ft)....3500      3500      8700      10000
Transport wind..W 14      W 14      W 15      W 14
Haines index....3         2         4         6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..56        56        99        125
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      GOOD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 12 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 11 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...SILVER CITY RANGER DISTRICT
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412655.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV