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000
FXUS64 KEWX 200000 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
700 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Mainly zonal flow aloft over South Central Texas today with a
surface front draped from west to east across the CWA. This front is
expected to stall this evening and will aid in the shower and storm
chances tomorrow. Mainly dry conditions are expected through this
afternoon, although a stray shower or weak storm could be possible
in this regime. Cloud cover and north to east winds will keep
conditions noticeably cooler today than previous days with highs
mainly in the 70s to the north and 80s in the south. Better
precipitation chances are seen in the west later this evening as a
weak upper level disturbance may ignite some thunderstorms over
Mexico that move into areas along the Rio Grande. Low to moderate
CAPE but sufficient shear indicate a strong storm cannot be ruled
out as it moves over the river, although they would likely quickly
weaken as they continue east into the overnight hours.

Some additional disturbances bring chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms Saturday morning, although the better forcing comes
later in the afternoon through Sunday morning. This is due to an
upper level shortwave that moves over the area as the quasi-
stationary front continues to linger across South Central Texas.
Moderate CAPE and bulk shear of around 40-45 knots will lead to a
low threat for isolated severe storms. Hail and damaging wind gusts
would be be the main concern with elevated storms and SPC has
continued a Level 1 of 5 Risk across much of South Central Texas for
this potential. With PWATs up to 200 percent of normal for mid-
April, thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain,
especially if training storms are seen. Thunderstorms may produce
isolated flooding across locations that see the heaviest totals
which are currently forecast over the northeastern portion of the
CWA. WPC continues the Level 1-2 risk for excessive rain across much
of the area for tomorrow into Sunday. Overall, rainfall amounts
range from around 0.5-2 inches. Drier conditions return from west to
east after midnight through Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Cool, dry, and breezy conditions can be expected during the day
Sunday as surface high pressure builds into the southern Plains,
finally pushing the lingering cold front out into the Gulf.

The remainder of the long term period looks to be quiet from a
weather standpoint as 500mb ridging builds into the region from the
west. This will also lead to a gradual warming trend through next
week. Towards the end of the work week, indications are that a
shortwave or two will move quickly from the Desert Southwest into
the Plains, but there is a good amount of model disagreement
regarding both timing and trajectories. Whether or not the
shortwave(s) move more into the central or southern Plains will be
the primary driver of precipitation chances late in the week. For
now, we will stick with the NBM which introduces low chances for
thunderstorms across northern portions of the CWA on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Cigs are hovering right at or just above MVFR along the I-35 corridor
and should remain as such over the next couple of hours. Will
continue to mention TEMPO groups to account for this trend, then show
prevailing MVFR for SAT and SSF beginning 02Z. For I-35, cigs will
continue to lower overnight into IFR as fog develops. Cigs may be
slow to rise tomorrow given northeast winds and expected slow
increase in coverage of showers. Will continue to mention PROB30
group for I-35 for tomorrow, especially late afternoon and evening.
Suspect SHRA/TSRA will trend upward in subsequent forecasts in TEMPO
or prevailing groups. Out west at DRT, we will continue to monitor
convective trends over the higher terrain of Mexico. For now, it
still appears some SHRA/TSRA can be expected between 03-07Z. Cigs
should lower quickly into IFR after 07Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  72  52  65 /  20  80  90   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  73  51  64 /  10  70  90   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  75  53  67 /  10  70  90   0
Burnet Muni Airport            62  67  50  62 /  30  80  90   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  79  60  75 /  40  70  50  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  69  50  63 /  20  80  90   0
Hondo Muni Airport             65  79  53  71 /  20  70  80   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  74  52  66 /  10  70  90   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  75  55  64 /  10  70  90   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  76  54  67 /  20  70  90   0
Stinson Muni Airport           67  78  56  69 /  20  70  80   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Platt