Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 110832
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
432 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024
...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Today:
A large upper level trough was generating widespread rainfall from
the Florida Panhandle to the southern Great Lake this morning.
The heaviest rainfall in our area (over east central Georgia) was
being driven by a deep fetch of moisture streaming off the Gulf
and convection in the Florida Panhandle. As the morning progress
this batch of consistent moderate to heavy rain should shift
eastward and out of Georgia. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms were also ongoing with the core of the upper level
trough over the Tennessee Valley this morning. These showers
continue to move into Georgia (primarily northern Georgia) this
afternoon as the core of the upper level trough lifts towards the
Ohio Valley. With this in mind we have kept rainfall chances of
20-70% in the forecast through early evening. Any rainfall should
dissipate quickly after sunset, as diurnal heating ends and the
trough axis shifts into the Carolinas.
Gusty southwest to west winds should develop in the region today
as the trough moves through. The strongest gusts should coincide
with a peak in diurnal heating and boundary layer mixing this
afternoon. For the majority of the region peak gusts near 35 mph
are expected. Thus a Wind Advisory has been issued for most of the
state. Isolated higher gusts, near 45 mph, may occur along the
mountain ridgelines in northern Georgia.
Temperatures today should be dictated by the passage of a
secondary cold front and push of cooler air this afternoon. This
should combine with widespread cloud cover and rainfall to limit
high temperatures in northwest Georgia to the upper 60s or lower
70s. In east central Georgia less cloud cover and a later arrive
of the stronger CAA should allow temperatures to climb into the
mid to upper 70s this afternoon.
Tonight and Friday:
Upper level troughing will remain in place over the Eastern US
tonight and Friday. Drier air and subsidence on the back side of
the trough should help bring any lingering precipitation to an
end this evening, and allow skies to clear. On Friday afternoon
minimum relative humidity values should dip into the 25 to 30%
range. Despite the low relative humidity, recent rainfall and
greener vegetation should keep our 10 hour fuels from drying out
to quickly. Thus a Fire Danger Statement should not be needed
Friday afternoon (chance of issuance < 5%). CAA on the back side
of the trough should keep temperatures mild (3-8 degrees below
average) on Friday. Highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be
anticipated.
Albright
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024
This period will feature dry weather and a warming trend that
should push high temperatures into the mid 80s by next Monday. On
a synoptic scale these trends will be driven by the departure of
the upper level trough this weekend, and the emergence of upper
level ridging early next week. Guidance from the EPS and GEFS
strongly supports this pattern shift, with 95% of their respective
members keeping the region dry through next Wednesday. Even the
rebellious members who generate precipitation only spit out a
couple of hundredths on Wednesday. Due to these strong trends in
the ensemble guidance, forecast confidence in dry weather and
warmer temperatures is high.
Albright
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024
The weather will remain unsettled in the region through 14z, with
a widespread rain showers and a mix of IFR and MVFR conditions
(ceilings 500 to 2000 ft AGL and visibility 3 to 6 SM). Scattered
rain showers will occur after 14Z, with a peak in activity
expected between 20Z today and 00Z Friday. Ceilings should rise to
VFR after 17Z, but may fall back into the MVFR range after 20Z
today. Southeast wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible in
eastern and central Georgia through 11Z today. Southwest winds
will develop between 13Z and 17Z today, gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range are expected.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate overall confidence in the KATL TAF.
High confidence in the wind forecast.
Moderate confidence in the precipitation, ceiling and visibility
forecasts.
Albright
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 76 50 68 46 / 60 30 0 0
Atlanta 72 50 67 48 / 50 20 0 0
Blairsville 68 44 60 43 / 90 50 10 0
Cartersville 71 47 67 43 / 70 30 0 0
Columbus 74 51 71 46 / 20 10 0 0
Gainesville 73 50 66 47 / 70 30 0 0
Macon 76 52 71 47 / 50 20 0 0
Rome 70 47 68 43 / 70 20 0 0
Peachtree City 72 49 68 45 / 40 20 0 0
Vidalia 81 54 73 49 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Albright