Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 130852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
352 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Large scale troughing across the eastern US, and amplified troughing
upstream over the Rockies continues to maintain northern flow over
the Northern Plains this morning. Surface high pressure is
centered over eastern North Dakota and South Dakota.

Early this morning: Fog has developed just west of Devils Lake and
has struggled to spread eastward into the western parts of our
forecast area. Short range guidance still favors expansion eastward,
and additional development east of the Red River in Minnesota.
Current trends are not matching up with the more aggressive
coverage/timing depicted by models, lowering overall confidence in
our CWA. At the same time; surface high pressure, shallow
moisture, and light winds persist and fog expansion can`t be
ruled out. For now, fog coverage has been adjusted to reflect
potential trends. A Dense Fog Advisory is not currently
anticipated, but near term trends will continue to be monitored.

Today-Tonight: Rising heights aloft as ridging shifts eastward
and increasing WAA associated with developing westerly BL flow will
support near to above normal temperatures again today (warmest
favored in eastern locations near pine forests of MN). Peak WAA
occurs overnight, and low level winds may limit potential inversion
strength due to mixing. This should result in relatively mild
overnight lows in the teens or even 20s. Dry conditions are expected
during these periods, with passing clouds (mainly high clouds)
within flow aloft out of Canada.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Quiet weather continues in the forecast for much of the extended
period. A weak cold front is expected to pass through the region on
Wednesday bringing a shift to northerly winds by the afternoon with
a few clouds. Temperatures will remain seasonal during the mid to
late week period with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 30s and
overnight lows in the teens.

Model guidance has come into better agreement with the placement
and evolution of a shortwave trough during the Friday/Saturday
time frame with much of the precipitation associated with the wave
remaining south of the eastern ND/western MN region.

Guidance continues to show a chance for precipitation during the
Sunday/Monday time frame as a second short wave ejects over the
central Plains. However, model spread remains high during this
period so overall precip chances remain low.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Issue will be the fog tonight/early Tuesday with DVL region the
best chance. Ground fog will mean quite variable visibilities.
Outside of fog areas, clear.




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