Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 130812
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
312 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Big winter storm system that moves into the Northern Plains later
today is the main forecast challenge. Not too much going on right
now, regional radars show some echoes over the western Dakotas,
with rain at Rapid City and snow at Bismarck. Pretty decent
moisture gradient across the FA, with a surface dew point of 9F
at Baudette and 28F at Gwinner. So there is drier air in southern
Canada once again. Models continue to show the primary impacts
from this winter storm staying just to the south of our FA. It
appears like there will be a really sharp line where there are
no impacts to huge impacts. This looks to be somewhere just to the
south or southeast of this FA. Expected snowfall amounts continue
to decrease across our southern FA, even more than the previous
model run. For that reason, it appears that winds will be the main
impact today, across the far southern FA. Will go ahead and issue
a wind advisory for the far southern FA for mainly the afternoon
into early evening. These winds should decrease out of advisory
criteria this evening, but will stay gusty tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Gusty winds will continue into Saturday, with the far southern FA
remaining on the fringe of the snow. With minimal amounts of fresh
snow, Saturday highs should rise back above 32F.

Saturday night an upper low over SW quadrant IA begins to progress N
then E...with models beginning to diverge on placement of the upper
low by 18Z Sunday...the ECMWF being further north.  Low then moves
est into WI and over Lake Michigan by 12Z Monday.  At this time an
upper ridge moves over west cntrl Dakotas.  There will be a threat
of light snow in the far east SE on Saturday night as the low moves
northward into srn MN...and the threat ending with its eastward
progression.  ECMWF would impact SE zones more than the 00Z GFS.

A break in action from Sun through early Tue morning as the ridge
slides east into the Valley.  As SW flow aloft sets behind departing
ridge Tue morning, increasing chances for some light snow north of
Devils Lake.  Chances of rain mainly in the Valley and ern ND Wed
night as broad troughing of low pressure expands across
Dakotas...and ECMWF developing closed low over NE NB.

Another upper ridge moves into wrn Dakotas Wed night and will keep
the area dry for the end of the week.  Models do show daytime highs
rising into the upper 40s with the second ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN. Track of system favors impacts
remaining well south of any terminals in ND/northwest MN, so I
kept mention out of TAFs during this update. Winds will tend to
increase above 10kt at most terminals with gusts possible at KFAR
as the main upper level system passes to the south.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     NDZ049-052-053.

MN...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ029-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...DJR



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