Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 182018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
318 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Mid/upper level ridging extends across ND and northern MN, while a
closed upper low passes over southern MN/IA. This places our CWA in
a favorable region for warming temperatures and dry conditions
through tonight. The upper low continues to transition eastward and
500 heights will continue rise over our CWA in response to
amplification of ridge over ND. Models show less of a response in
temps at 925-850 MB as might be indicated as low level flow
maintains an easterly component through Thursday afternoon.
Lingering snow pack also complicates temps some. In any case we will
see near seasonal temperatures for most locations (40s or warmer)
and snow melt will continue.

Guidance has also been hinting at possible fog development in ND as
surface high pressure and easterly flow continues. Strongest signal
is west of our CWA, but we could see patchy/shallow fog develop
further east into Red River Valley Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Impacts for the extended appear to be confined to temperatures as a
quiet weather pattern takes shape across the northern plains through
the weekend and into next week. Split flow across North America will
create storm tracks north and south of the area. A combination of
northern stream energy will bring presumably minor rain chances
Sunday and Tuesday. A relatively dry airmass exists with GEFS
ensembles indicating a mean of a couple of tenths and a max just
under an inch, only one of twenty members, for the Tuesday and
Wednesday time frame. The EC ensemble values match the GEFS well.
Temperatures start the period with low 50s and rise into the upper
50s to mid 60s on Sunday. Behind the front Tuesday temperatures cool
back to the mid 50s. Lows will start off in the upper 20s and low
30s rising into the upper 30s and low 40s Sunday morning. These
values are remarkably close to mid to late April normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

VFR conditions across eastern ND and northwest MN. Main concern
will be a few locations (mainly in northwest MN) gusting early in
the TAF period from the northeast around 20 mph. These winds
should decrease through the afternoon. Some guidance is showing
the potential for reduced vis/cigs to IFR Thursday morning, but
this may be overdone and mention has been left out of TAFs.


Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Snow melt is contributing to response/rises to Red River and
tributaries, with minor ice jams at a few river points. Minor
flooding (or less) is currently favored across the southern half
of the valley, but there is some concern further north (mainly
Oslo) where ice in river may lead to higher rises as tributaries
empty into the main channel. Moderate flood stage at Oslo is
currently forecast by Saturday evening, and this will need to be
monitored as ice conditions could change (hopefully for the
better). Luckily, with significant precipitation not expected over
the next seven days any major flooding from rapid runoff is
not expected.




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