Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 142001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
Issued by National Weather Service BISMARCK ND
301 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a narrow but sharp upper
level ridge stretching from the Yukon Territories through the
front range of the Northern Rockies. Compensatory northwest flow
into eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota continues this
afternoon, with low level cold air advection via surface to 850mb
northwest to northerly winds.

For this afternoon/evening and tonight, sunny conditions per
latest visible imagery loop and surface observations will continue
through early this evening. High resolution models continue to
pick up on an area of stratus located from southern Ontario and
weakly extending into southeastern Manitoba. Models and BUFKIT
soundings indicate moistening up of the lower levels as winds turn
more northeast this evening/overnight, with upslope flow across
our western counties. After collaboration with Bismarck WFO, we
have gone with this idea and used a blend of Forecast Builder
CONSSHORT, along with the HRRR/RAP for sky grids, focusing in on
more cloud development across the Devils Lake Basin. Soundings
exhibit as northeast winds/drier air aloft begin to dominate the
entire column, clearing conditions can be expected from northeast
to southwest through Thursday morning. Overnight lows will range
from around 10 above north to upper teens south.

For Thursday, the narrow ridge of high pressure mentioned above
shifts into eastern North Dakota with plenty of sunshine and high
temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Per latest water vapor imagery, an upper low was seen circulating
just west of Queen Charlotte Islands with an attending trough
stretched south along the west coast. A leading shortwave trough
was moving into central California, which will eject into the
central plains Thursday/Friday. This shortwave and associated
precipitation area will remain just south of our far southern
counties Friday through Friday night. Other than some clouds in
our south, the rest of the forecast area will remain sunny.

A transitory ridge then slides across our region Saturday through
most of Sunday afternoon producing dry weather. Highs Saturday
will range from the 30s, to lower 40s east and south.

For Sunday night through Tuesday, a lot of uncertainty remains at
this time. The main upper low mentioned above will follow a path
similar to the previous shortwave trough, except a bit farther
north. Per GFS, which is faster and keeps this low mostly as an
open wave, allows for a chance of snow in our far south Sunday
night into Monday morning. However the ECMWF advertises this
system as closed low in southwestern North Dakota, moving slowly
east and spreading snow through eastern North Dakota and into
western Minnesota all the way through Tuesday. Forecast Builder
advertises periodic chances of snow Sunday night through
Wednesday, and will leave this as is for now. High temperatures
remain in the 30s Monday through Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Expect SKC through 00z Thursday. Latest satellite imagery shows an
area of stratus/mvfr cigs located from southeast Manitoba and into
western/southern Ontario. This stratus will continue to shift
south and eventually west this evening/tonight. The result will be
for mvfr/ifr cigs reaching KDVL from 02z and 10z Thursday, and a
brief period of mvfr cigs at KTVF between 01z and 03z Thursday.
Rest of the terminals will remain vfr, with cigs ranging from
3500ft to 7000ft above ground level through 06z, then sct high
clouds thereafter.




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