Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201438
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
938 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Other than a few minor tweaks to temperatures, no major changes to
what we had going. Still looking on track for a very nice day with
light winds and highs in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Expecting a quiet and beautiful day across the region today.
Temps will be on the chilly side to start, with frost advisories
going until 8 AM across some of the the northwestern and eastern
zones. But temps will rise into the 70s under sunny skies and with
light winds. The area is under the influence of high pressure
currently as a ridge of high pressure extends from ND east through
northern MN. Aloft, weak NW flow exists with an upper ridge over
western ND. The upper ridge and surface high will drift slowly
eastward today. Meanwhile, the late May sun will work on
moderating temps across the region. As temps cool tonight, they`ll
have a longer ways to go...and with a bit of an increase in dew
points, believe another frost is unlikely. The closest sites in
the MOS guidance is Bemidji coming in at 38F and Wadena at 37F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Monday and Tuesday...
Upper level ridge building is forecast for Mon and Tue. Colder
air forecast to remain over eastern Canada this period as upper
ridge over western Canada expands east. Low level moisture
increases and low level jet increases by Wed which will increase
the threat for thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Saturday...
Long wave pattern retrogrades a bit through the period and also
weakens. Long wave ridge over ALTA backs into BC. Long wave trough
near Greenland backs into the Canadian archipelago. Pattern
remains split with northern stream over Canada and southern stream
over the states. The GFS and the ECMWF were in reasonable
agreement. The GFS was a little faster solution than the
ECMWF...especially in the northern stream. Precipitable water
expected to rise above an inch during much of the period. May
transition to northwest flow aloft on Fri or Sat. Upper ridge over
western Canada continues to expand east much of the period.

High temperatures were increased about a degree for Wed, Thu, and
Sat. Highs were decreased one to three degrees for Fri from
yesterdays package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

VFR conditions expected at the terminals.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...Knutsvig



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