Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 281007
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
307 AM MST Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mild weather and increasing southwest winds
through Saturday. A strong storm system arrives Saturday night and
will produce areas of rain and accumulating mountain snow to our
area for Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Relatively flat/zonal flow is expected today, with
above normal hghts. This will lead to a seasonably warm and partly
sunny afternoon, with southwest winds increasing late. Low pressure
forming along the west coast will begin to dig southward Friday and
Saturday, tightening our gradients and leading to a pair of quite
windy days. We have gone ahead with a Wind Advisory for Friday and
this will undoubtedly be followed by another one for Saturday.

All this is in advance of a strong low pressure area that will set
up camp over SOCAL, before ejecting into Arizona late Saturday night
and Sunday. A well-developed frontal band over central Arizona on
Sunday will bring a fair amount of rain and snow, with the I-17
corridor looking like the focus right now. The low then fractures
with a piece of energy lingering over the SW into early next week. A
possible blocking pattern may keep it around for a few days, but it
is early right now and this is not guaranteed.

Either way, expect a significant storm for Sunday, followed by
unsettled and moderating conditions heading into next week. Snow
levels Sunday look to be in the 5000-6000 foot range, with modest
accumulations on the Mogollon Rim.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 28/06Z through Friday 29/06Z...VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period. Light winds will remain through
18Z, with breezy southwest winds 15-25kts gusting 25-35kts
afterwards.

OUTLOOK...Friday 29/06Z through Sunday 31/06Z...VFR conditions
will continue through Friday, before MVFR/IFR conditions are
likely with -SHRA/-SHSN Saturday and Sunday. Winds will be gusty
out of the southwest 30-40kts on Friday , before increasing out
of the south at 40-50kts on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Dry conditions with seasonable
temperatures. Southwest winds 15-25 mph today, increasing to 20-30
mph on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Turning colder. Chances for rain and snow
increase late Saturday with widespread precipitation expected Sunday
and Monday. Southwest winds 25-35 mph on Saturday, then subsiding to
around 15-25 mph on Sunday. Winds shift to the west/northwest on
Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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