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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222024
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
124 PM MST Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and breezy conditions continue through the
middle of the week. Cooler and more unsettled conditions return for
the second half of the week, with a chance of showers Thursday and
again late Friday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry and increasingly breezy weather will continue
through Wednesday as ridging over the southwest gradually gets
pushed eastward by a trough moving onto the west coast. Today will
be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures cooling a
few degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday - the west coast trough moves across Arizona. Weak lift
and instability combine for a chance of showers starting in the
early morning hours from Flagstaff westward, spreading eastward
through the afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be light with
the probability of 0.10" or greater only around 10% for the high
country and even lower in the valleys. Temperatures will be around
10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Southwest wind gusts pick up to
30-45 mph, strongest from the White Mountains into the Little
Colorado River valley including Winslow, Holbrook, and St Johns.

Friday and Saturday - the next trough moves through the state.
This one is forecast to be a bit colder and wetter than the
Thursday system. Some timing uncertainty remains, with the latest
EC solutions faster with the arrival of precipitation (mid day
Friday) and other guidance holding off until Friday evening into
Saturday. Expect temperatures to cool to below normal. Windy
conditions persist Friday with widespread gusts 30-45 mph. The
latest precipitation forecasts call for 0.10"-0.30" along the
higher terrain above 6000 ft, with a trace to 0.10" for the lower
elevations. Snow levels remain uncertain but could fall to near
7000 feet Friday night/Saturday morning with some light
accumulation above 7500 feet. Drier/warmer conditions return
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 22/18Z through Tuesday 23/18Z...VFR conditions
under mostly sunny skies. Localized MVFR will be possible due to
FU/HZ near prescribed fires with the main impacts expected near
KPAN. SW surface winds at 10-15 kts, gusting near 20-25 kts will
become light and variable after 02Z. Even stronger gusts expected
after 17Z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 23/18Z through Thursday 25/18Z...Mostly VFR
with occasional MVFR conditions in FU/HZ near prescribed fires.
SW winds 10-20 kts, gusting near 20-30 kts from roughly 16Z
through 02Z each day. Winds will subside overnight. A slight
chance of SH enters the forecast on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and warm, but
temperatures cooling with southwest winds gradually increasing
each day. Expect winds at 10-15 mph, gusting 20-30 mph Tuesday
with peak gusts of 25-35 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH will be
10-20% in the afternoons.

Thursday through Saturday...Temperatures continue cooling. A chance
of showers (20-40%) Thursday will primarily be for Coconino County;
wetting rains unlikely. Southwest winds will peak Thursday at 15-30
mph, gusting 30-45 mph. Minimum RH will increase to around 20-40%
with much higher overnight recovery values. Scattered showers are
expected across northern Arizona overnight Friday through
Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Mazon
FIRE WEATHER...Mazon

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff