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000
FXUS64 KFWD 131846
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
146 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1048 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024/
/This afternoon through Sunday night/

Subsidence under a ridge aloft will keep the remainder of the
weekend rain-free, but moisture streaming in from the Pacific
will result in some passing high clouds.

A storm system approaching from the west will keep a surface
trough across the Central High Plains through the end of the
weekend. The surface trough will draw additional moisture
northward from the Gulf, resulting in increasing humidity along
with overnight/morning stratus. Low clouds on Sunday morning will
scatter out during the afternoon with mixing of drier air from
above.

Plenty of sun this afternoon and Sunday afternoon along with low
level warm air advection will push afternoon temperatures into
the 80s. A few locations in the west may even reach 90 degrees
Sunday afternoon. Lows tonight will be mild with lower and middle
60s region-wide.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday and Beyond/

By early Monday morning, a deep upper low will be shifting over
the Four Corners region leading to surface cyclogenesis in the lee
of the Rockies. Increasing southerly flow will transport mid-60s
dewpoints over North and Central Texas by Monday afternoon ahead
of a dryline laid out across portions of West/Northwest Texas.
Initial thunderstorm development will take place late Monday
afternoon and evening along this boundary well to the west and
northwest of the FWD CWA as the upper low approaches. The
environment will support discrete/semi-discrete supercellular
structures with this initial convection as it develops across
portions of West Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. As a Pacific
front overtakes the dryline late Monday evening and pushes the
convection toward our western zones, a transition to a more linear
storm structure make take place. With the greater synoptic-scale
ascent remaining northwest of our forecast area ahead of the upper
low track and SBCIN increasing after dark, moderate to strong
capping may lead to a downtrend in intensity by the time the
thunderstorm activity enters our Big Country and western North
Texas counties around 8-11PM Monday night. This is especially true
as the line/broken line of showers and thunderstorms approaches
the I-35 corridor later Monday night.

With sufficient wind shear and at least some moderate elevated
instability, we do not want to underplay the severe weather threat
just yet, especially west of the I-35 corridor late Monday evening
into Monday night. At least scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected along the Pacific front as it pushes
through North and Central Texas, but it is likely that many
locations receive less than 0.10" of rain with this event. Most of
the activity should push into East Texas by midday Tuesday, but we
will need to monitor for a brief window of reintensification early
Tuesday afternoon across our far eastern/southeastern counties.

Drier air behind the Pacific front will lead to a dry, warm
midweek period with afternoon highs approaching the mid-80s to low
90s by Wednesday. A strong cold front will push through the region
in the Thursday-early Friday timeframe bringing cooler
temperatures and thunderstorm chances back to the region. High
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s are looking more probable
Friday into the weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1048 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Stratus across portions of Central and North Texas continues to
lift and scatter late this morning. Only a few Cu and passing
high clouds are expected through sunset. Stratus will return
overnight through Sunday morning compliments of a 35+ knot low
level jet. Ceilings between 1500 ft and 2500 ft should reach Waco
between 07Z and 08Z with a slightly later arrival time across the
Metroplex terminals. Ceilings will lift through the morning and
eventually scatter by midday.

A breezy south wind will prevail this afternoon through Sunday,
generally in the 12 to 18 knot range along with occasional gusts
around 28 knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  83  66  81  68 /   0   0   0   5  60
Waco                63  81  65  81  68 /   0   0   0   0  40
Paris               59  80  63  79  65 /   0   0   0   5  50
Denton              60  83  64  80  64 /   0   0   0  10  70
McKinney            61  82  65  79  66 /   0   0   0   5  60
Dallas              63  84  66  81  69 /   0   0   0   5  60
Terrell             61  81  64  79  66 /   0   0   0   5  50
Corsicana           63  82  65  82  69 /   0   0   0   0  40
Temple              62  82  64  81  67 /   0   0   0   0  40
Mineral Wells       61  87  65  83  64 /   0   0   0  10  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$