945
FXUS64 KFWD 300622
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
122 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Morning/

A quiet but humid night is underway for North and Central Texas
as dew points linger in the mid to upper 60s across the region. An
additional surge of moisture from the southeast will result in
increasing cloud cover through Tuesday morning as low-level clouds
fill in across the region. Along with this is the low end
potential for patchy warm-air advection fog, mainly across Central
Texas. This window for patchy fog will be relatively brief into
the morning hours as skies gradually clear and daytime mixing
resumes. Overnight lows will remain mild through the morning as
well, generally bottoming out in the low to mid 60s.

This surge of moisture through Tuesday will result in a
sharpening moisture gradient along the dry line that will be
located off to our west on Tuesday afternoon. As this occurs,
daytime heating coupled with clearing skies and southerly winds
will lead to afternoon highs rising into the mid to upper 80s
across the region, with a few locations in our westernmost
counties approaching the 90 degree mark. While the environment
will be conducive for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
across our northwestern counties, the question regarding how far
east convection propagates remains. The lack of large-scale
forcing for ascent also lessens confidence in the spatial extent
of thunderstorm activity through Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The latest hi-res guidance continues the trend of convection
reaching our northwestern counties by around midnight Wednesday
before quickly dissipating. All of this being said, any
thunderstorms will be capable of becoming severe should they make
it this far east. The main threat would be large hail with lower
potential for a damaging wind threat, but this potential will
remain quite isolated with limited coverage.

Cloud cover will be increasing once again across North and
Central Texas overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. As a
result, overnight lows on Wednesday will be warmer, ranging in
the mid to upper 60s and low 70s across much of the region.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 314 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/
/Wednesday Onward/

A shortwave trough will sweep across the Rockies on Wednesday
before lifting northeast through the Plains on Thursday. This will
provide a couple of opportunities for thunderstorms, the first
being Wednesday night associated with the dryline, and the second
being on Thursday as an attendant cold front pushes through. Good
instability will be in place for both events. Weak flow aloft may
mitigate the severe weather threat for the Wednesday night
convection, with effective shear values holding in the 15 to 20 kt
range. Values will increase to near 35 kt on Thursday as the
shortwave crosses the Plains, which could support severe
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. All activity will push
south of the region Thursday night or Friday morning as the front
heads for South Central and Southeast Texas.

Slightly cooler weather can be expected this weekend in the wake
of the front. The upper level pattern will remain unsettled,
however, with the next shortwave shifting from the Rockies to the
Plains Friday night. This feature will help ignite scattered
showers and storms across the Big Country, which will enter our
western zones Friday night. The front will be stationary to our
south, keeping storms elevated in nature and largely sub-severe,
though 8+ degree mid level lapse rates may allow for large hail in
a few cells. A shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet will
then lift northeast from West Texas into the Southern Plains
Saturday night, bringing another potential round of elevated
showers and storms, which may also be capable of hail.

The front will then return to the north as a warm front on
Sunday as an upper low approaches from the west and a lee-side
surface trough strengthens. Scattered light rain showers and
perhaps an isolated storm or two may accompany the front as it
crosses the CWA, with activity shifting north of the Red River
along with the front Sunday afternoon. The next rain chances will
be Sunday night or Monday as the low traverses the Plains and
generates more dryline convection. Temperatures will otherwise
return to slightly above-normal values next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR Ceilings Through Early Tuesday Morning.

Light southeasterly winds will gradually become southerly through
the overnight hours into early Tuesday morning. Increasing
moisture will lead to areas of patchy fog, mainly across Central
Texas. There is a low chance for minor visibility restrictions
across Waco and the D10 terminals through the morning hours.
Along with this will be an increase in low-level cloud cover
through Tuesday morning as stratus creeps northward. Ceilings will
generally dip down to MVFR across North and Central Texas, with
potential for IFR ceilings at Waco. Conditions regarding
visibility and ceilings will quickly improve as we move through
Tuesday morning as turbulent mixing resumes after daybreak.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  84  69  82  66 /   5  30  50  90  60
Waco                69  82  69  81  66 /   0  40  50  80  50
Paris               65  83  67  74  64 /   5  30  30  90  70
Denton              68  82  67  81  64 /   5  20  50  90  60
McKinney            68  82  68  79  65 /   5  30  50  90  60
Dallas              70  84  69  82  66 /   5  30  50  90  60
Terrell             67  83  68  79  66 /   5  40  50  90  70
Corsicana           69  84  70  80  67 /   0  40  50  90  60
Temple              69  83  69  82  67 /   0  40  50  70  50
Mineral Wells       68  84  68  84  63 /  10  20  60  70  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$