Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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809 FXUS64 KFWD 011907 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 207 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ After our brief break, another period of unsettled weather begins later today. The 70F isodrosotherm is already within our CWA, with even richer boundary-layer moisture approaching Central Texas. It`s within this deeper moisture that bubbles on visible satellite and weak echoes on radar are foreshadowing the convective potential later this afternoon. Just south of our southern boundary, MLCAPE values exceed 2000 J/kg and MUCAPE values top 3000 J/kg owing to steep mid-level lapse rates. Although these initial convective attempts are separated from the boundary layer, effective erosion of the remaining inhibition should allow for updrafts to be rooted in the rich surface layer. Deep-layer shear and classically veered profiles will favor supercells. These storms would have a tendency to move north faster than the buoyant boundary layer can advect, and they may weaken as they ingest the somewhat cooler, cloud- stifled parcels within our CWA. Nonetheless, the more enduring cells could still pose a wind/hail threat, and low LCLs and adequate 0-1km shear will maintain a tornado threat. Some of these storms may survive as far north as the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex after dark. A West Texas dryline will come alive late this afternoon. The mid-level impulse responsible for the initiation will be further enhanced by the convection as it approaches North and Central Texas this evening. There may be little separation in space and time between the activity mentioned in the paragraph above and the subsequent round that will arrive later in the evening and through the overnight hours. Discrete hail cores will eventually give way to a more linear complex that will primarily pose a wind threat. While wetting rainfall is anticipated for much if not all of the region, our main focus for flooding remains within the ongoing Flood Watch where positive soil moisture anomalies from recent rainfall coincide with the greatest QPF from tonight`s event. However, heavy rainfall outside of the watch area could also reaggravate flooding issues elsewhere. Some showers or storms may linger in its wake, but the main MCS should exit into East Texas around daybreak Thursday morning. A lull in convective activity should follow on Thursday, but the atmosphere may be able to recharge by afternoon. Another round of warm-advection showers and storms could spread north across the region by late Thursday afternoon. While these cells would likely be less organized and generally less robust than their predecessors 24 hours earlier, they could still pose a wind/hail threat. However, the more significant storm potential will accompany a cold front that will approach our northwestern frontier Thursday evening. 25 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 414 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024/ /Thursday Onward/ The overnight MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern and southern parts of our forecast area early Thursday morning, mainly the trailing stratiform portion of the MCS. There is about a 10% chance of backbuilding convection on the upshear flank of the system continuing through the morning in Central Texas. This would drastically increase and prolong the flood threat. There is a low probability of this occurring, but the impact of it is high enough that it is worth mentioning. A lull in convective activity is expected in the early afternoon Thursday as the MCS moves East before additional storms develop along a cold front and dryline late in the day. Convective initiation is expected near a triple point in western North Texas...consensus in the guidance generally has this taking place between Childress-Wichita Falls and as far south as Abilene. The convective mode will start as supercells that transition to outflow dominate clusters as they move into our forecast area overnight into Friday morning. All modes of severe weather will be possible with the supercells, but only a few strong to marginally severe wind gusts or hail stones will be possible once the storms become outflow dominant Thursday night. The cold front will then flutter near the area Friday with additional scattered storms developing along the boundary in the afternoon. Guidance has started to latch on to a stronger cold front moving down the Plains late Friday into Saturday, stalling in or near North Texas Saturday. One again...scattered storms are expected to develop along the boundary in the afternoon. The best chance for storms will be Saturday night and Sunday as a shortwave trough moves over the front. The front should then lift north and wash out, leaving our area precip-free and under the influence of a warm and humid airmass next week. Ensemble trends are still indicating the development of a strong mid-level ridge over the Gulf Coast in the middle and late parts of next week. This would result in a warming trend with highs in the 90s more likely than not (50-70% chance for most locations south of I-20) from Tuesday onward. Since surface moisture will not be significantly scoured, heat index values will become important next week...especially across Central and East Texas where heat index values in the upper 90s or even low 100s are possible next Wednesday-Thursday. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns include thunder potential and IFR ceilings Thursday. MVFR ceilings will eventually climb above 3kft AGL this afternoon though this process will be slower across Central Texas. These clouds have slowed the warming of the surface layer, which is still separated from the stronger momentum air within the cloud- bearing layer. The 18Z TAF tempers wind speeds, but somewhat stronger sustained speeds with higher gusts may still occur later this afternoon. Convective attempts continue to struggle across Central Texas, but guidance maintains the potential for storms to impact the Waco terminal late this afternoon. The introduction of VCTS is the same warm-advection activity that may trek as far north as the Dallas/ Fort Worth for the initial TEMPO group in the Metroplex (02-04Z). The main MCS with wind potential will be after midnight along the I-35 corridor, thankfully during the nocturnal minimum for aviation operations. Some showers/storms may trail behind the MCS, but the TAFs endeavor to limit the duration of TS. After the thunderstorm winds subside, a period of low-level wind shear may follow (not currently included). IFR ceilings will then follow and persist throughout the daylight hours of Thursday morning. Reductions in visibility are likely above the rain-soaked ground, but the ceilings will determine the flight category. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 68 81 69 82 / 20 70 70 50 20 Waco 83 67 80 70 82 / 40 80 70 40 20 Paris 84 66 76 66 80 / 10 60 90 70 40 Denton 83 66 81 65 80 / 20 70 60 50 20 McKinney 83 67 79 67 81 / 20 70 70 60 20 Dallas 86 68 81 69 83 / 20 70 70 50 20 Terrell 83 67 79 67 81 / 20 80 80 60 30 Corsicana 85 68 81 70 83 / 30 80 90 50 30 Temple 82 67 81 70 82 / 50 80 50 30 20 Mineral Wells 82 67 84 67 81 / 20 70 30 40 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday afternoon for TXZ121-122-134-135-142>148-156>162-174-175. && $$