682
FXUS64 KFWD 290012
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
712 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Tuesday Morning/

As of early this evening, the majority of activity has exited our
region aside from scattered storms across eastern Central Texas,
and rogue storms in North Texas. Overall, the severe threat has
greatly diminished as we near the close of our multi-day weather
event. Lingering showers and storms in our southeast will
eventually exit closer to midnight tonight, bringing rain chances
to an end. Through the rest of tonight, expect light and variable
winds and continued clearing skies. In response to primed, moist
soils, we expect a bank of patchy radiation fog across most of the
forecast area to blossom just after midnight. Expect lowered
visibilities to impact your commute through mid-morning, with some
areas becoming dense. If you find yourself within dense fog, make
sure to slow down, use your fog lights, and give yourself plenty
of time to get to your destination!

By Monday afternoon, any patchy fog should erode and leave behind
mostly clear skies through the rest of the day. There is potential
for clouds to linger a bit longer due to easterly winds at the
surface and low-levels and their accompanying upslope component,
but this is still uncertain and something to watch out for
tomorrow. Otherwise, expect a nice afternoon with some mid-level
cloud cover as the base of an upper level longwave trough moves
across the Southern Plains. High temperatures for the day will
peak in the 80s region-wide for a nice end-of-April day.

A quiet night is expected tomorrow night as lee surface
cyclogenesis to our northwest shifts winds back to the south.
Overnight lows will bottom out in the 60s. Another round of
patchy fog is possible, but this time will be advection-induced.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/

Quiet weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weak
disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the
dryline Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located
over the Big Country, where convective initiation should take
place. Storms would likely end up being isolated in nature thanks
to the presence of a strong capping inversion, but a storm or two
may still reach severe thresholds somewhere west of I-35.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as an upper trough
approaches from the northwest. Height falls in advance of the
trough will lead to more thunderstorm development along the
dryline. A cap will still be in place, but and added upper level
support should help convection overcome the cap, leading to
scattered storms across mainly the western half of the region
Wednesday evening. A secondary swath of showers and storms may
enter the southeast counties Wednesday afternoon as an active
sea/gulf breeze enters from the south. The better severe threat
will exist with the dryline convection (west of I-35), while a
lower threat will accompany the seabreeze storms.

The upper trough will drop southeast through the Southern Plains
Thursday through Thursday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop by Thursday afternoon, and may grow
upscale into a linear MCS while becoming focused along an
attendant cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible as
activity pushes southeast through the region Thursday night, with
precipitation exiting to the southeast Friday morning with the
front.

Another lull in the active weather pattern will take place on
Friday, which should actually end up being a nice post-frontal
day with drier air and highs in the 70s. Clouds will rapidly
increase on Saturday, however, as a shortwave embedded in the
subtropical jet approaches from the west. The front will again
become focus for convective development as it lifts north as a
warm front on Saturday. The severe weather potential is
uncertain, however, as it may become dependent on how rapidly the
warm sector arrives. Whatever the case, rain chances will continue
into next Sunday, followed by warmer and drier weather to start
the following week as ridging develops aloft.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Convection has ended at all TAF sites, aside from a storm west of
D10 as of 00Z. There is still uncertainty on if this will keep
shape long enough to make it to the D10 sites, so we will continue
to watch over the next couple of hours and make adjustments as
necessary.

South-to-southeasterly winds will become light and variable
tonight. Coupled with a primed environment, patchy, sometimes
dense, mist/fog is expected over the TAF sites just after
midnight. The best chances for both LIFR surface and vertical
visibilities/cigs and will be 11-15Z for D10 and 10-14Z for ACT.
There is a TEMPO in place for now, but these lowered vis/cigs
could end up being prevailed if a more substantial fog bank
occurs.

Lingering mist/fog should erode by mid tomorrow morning, with
east-southeast winds below 10 kts through the end of the period.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  85  65  85  70 /   5   0   0   5  20
Waco                64  83  63  83  69 /  10   0   0  10  10
Paris               62  81  60  83  66 /  60   0   0  10  10
Denton              61  83  63  84  67 /   5   0   0   5  30
McKinney            63  83  62  83  68 /  10   0   0  10  20
Dallas              64  85  64  85  69 /   5   0   0  10  20
Terrell             63  82  61  84  68 /  40   0   0  10  10
Corsicana           65  84  64  85  69 /  50   0   0  20  10
Temple              65  85  64  84  69 /  10   0   0  20  10
Mineral Wells       58  86  63  86  68 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-104>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-159>162-174-175.

&&

$$