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000
FXUS65 KGGW 160826
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
226 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Pattern shift to colder weather begins today.

- Strong winds and dry weather will bring critical fire weather
  concerns today, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect.

- Strong northwest winds will keep a Lake Wind Advisory in effect
  through Thursday evening.

- A few isolated rain and snow showers will be possible over the
  next few days, QPF amounts are expected to be low.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Cold front will move through the forecast area this morning. Upper
level trough/low will move into the area during the day today with
colder temperatures for the remainder of the week. Strong
northwest winds behind the front today will combine with low
humidity to create critical fire weather conditions that will keep
a Red Flag Warning in effect until this evening. A Lake Wind
Advisory will remain in effect until Thursday evening for the
strong northwest winds. On Wednesday, cold air advection will
drop our temperatures back to below normal and will limit fire
weather concerns as relative humidity is expected. The upper low
center is expected to stay north of the Canadian Border which will
keep most of the moisture with this system to the north. Chance
for measurable precipitation over the next few days is 10-50
percent most of the time with the highest chance being in the
north.

A brief ridge builds over the weekend bringing a slight warming
trend but another upper level Low may bring another chance of
precipitation by the beginning of next week.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

High confidence on high winds through Thursday and low humidity
today. Medium to low confidence on POPs and amounts. Medium
confidence for upcoming ridge over the weekend, low confidence on
next system moving in Sunday night into Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0800Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR most of the time. Isolated MVFR this morning
and becoming MVFR in most areas late tonight.

DISCUSSION: Cold front through this morning bringing strong
northwest winds and a pattern shift to colder weather. A few
isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible through 12Z mainly
over KGDV and KSDY. There will be a chance of light rain and snow
showers late tonight as low clouds move into the area.

WIND: Variable less than 10 knots early, shifting NW 10 to 20 knots
by 15Z, increasing to NW 20 to 30 knots, gusts 35 to 40 knots this
afternoon. NW winds will continue tonight at 15 to 25 knots.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and low humidity, along with gusty northwest winds
from a cold frontal passage will bring critical fire weather
conditions to most of northeast Montana today. With RH 20-30
percent and northwest winds 20-30 mph except for the northeast
corner of the state today, will keep Red Flag Warning in effect
for zones 122, 134, 135, 136 and 137 from 9 am through 9 pm today.
There is spotty greenup currently, but rapid drying potential and
remaining dead fuels are available to burn. While strong northwest
winds are also expected on Wednesday, colder temperatures will
bring higher humidity. While there will be chances for light rain
and light snow tonight through Friday, the chances for wetting
rain will be 10 percent or less.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Northern
Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and
Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The Lower Missouri
River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife
Refuge.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow