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000
FXUS64 KHGX 171136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The immediate period will continue to be characterized by warm and
humid weather with the overall synoptic pattern generally remaining
in place. With broad surface high pressure over the SE CONUS and a
developing surface low to our NW, steady surface flow out of the SE
will continue to supply the region with warm and moist Gulf air.
While total PWs remain well north of 1.5 in area-wide, forecast
soundings continue to show the presence of a robust subsidence
inversion that should suppress any convective development over the
next few days as a series of weak midlevel shortwaves traverse the
area. That being said, the potential for a few isolated streamer
showers cannot fully be ruled out (though these chances remain low
enough to not include any prevailing weather in the morning forecast
package). Additionally, with low dewpoint depressions in place, some
patchy fog may develop during the early morning hours both today and
tomorrow. The greatest chances for fog development will be
concentrated along the immediate coast and west of the I-45 corridor.

On Thursday, the aforementioned surface low will drag a cold front
into the Southern Plains. As in previous forecast packages, the
front remains expected to stall before reaching our area. However,
depending on exactly where the boundary stalls, some of the far
northern zones could pick up some measurable rain (though, again,
these chances remain relatively low).

In terms of the temperature forecast, we remain above seasonal norms
with inland locations seeing highs in the mid/upper 80s while
locations along the coast will see highs in the lower 80s. Overnight
lows, aided by robust cloud cover and WAA, will continue to sit in
the 70s.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

On Friday morning, a cold front will be knocking on our door but
it`s going to hit the morning inbound rush hour traffic on I-45 and
stall out just north of the region. The showers/storms associated
with it "should" be dissipated by this point as we remain fairly
capped with a subsidence inversion around 850mb on Friday morning.
This cold front doesn`t have much synoptic support as the upper
level low/trough generally remains in southern Canada with little to
no southward movement. With no FROPA, temperatures will remain hot
for this time of the year with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The
cap remains in place on Friday afternoon, so even with plenty of
moisture, it`ll be tough (but not impossible) to get some isolated
showers going along the sea breeze. It`d take a more substantial
lifting mechanism...something like a frontal boundary...oh yeah
there`s one right around the Brazos Valley! A shortwave trough
begins to push in from the west on late Friday night/early Saturday
morning, which gets the front to break out of its quasi-stationary
state.

PW values surge to 1.7"-1.9" (MAX percentile: ~1.91") on Saturday
due to moisture convergence along the frontal boundary.
Frontogenetic forcing combined with PVA from a passing shortwave
means widespread showers/storms are expected on Saturday, especially
on Saturday night/Sunday morning. It still looks to be a MCS-ish
type of scenario. There is potential for locally heavy rainfall with
any of the stronger storms. The surface cold front pushes through on
Saturday night, but rainfall may linger along the coast/offshore
into Sunday afternoon until the 850mb front pushes through. What
does this mean for temperatures? Whelp...on Saturday we`ll be a few
degrees cooler due to the rainfall, so expect highs in the low to
mid 80s. The front pushing through will allow for temperatures to
fall into the mid to upper 50s across the Brazos Valley and low 60s
elsewhere. On Sunday, cloud cover persists throughout the day so
there won`t be much warming. High temperatures will range from the
mid 60s to low 70s. Surface high pressure moves in on late Sunday
night, but may not move in early enough to clear out cloud cover for
max radiational cooling. We`ll still see widespread lows in the 50s
though. My advice is to enjoy it and savor these cooler
temperatures...we`re approaching the end of April so FROPA`s will
become less and less common.

High pressure kicks out to the east on Monday night allowing for
onshore flow to return. We`ll see ridging aloft develop as well,
which will lead into a warming trend going into next week. We`ll go
from highs in the upper 70s on Monday to the low 80s on
Tuesday...and the upward trend looks to continue beyond that. So
yeah...enjoy those 50s on Sunday night!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

IFR cigs, along with some reduced visibilities due to the
development of patchy fog, will prevail over the next several
hours before improving with daytime heating. Cloud decks lift to
around 3500 ft by late morning, with a SE wind near 10 knots
remaining in place into the evening. Similar trends to this past
evening are expected overnight tonight, with both IFR cigs and
some patchy fog poised to develop yet again as winds relax
slightly.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Due to elevated seas in the offshore waters, caution flags remain
raised through the morning hours. Moderate southeast winds will
continue to prevail into midweek, but there will be a brief lull
through the early afternoon hours. Winds begin to increase in the
late afternoon hours and may prompt another round of caution flags.
This extended period of moderate onshore flow continues to carry an
elevated rip current risk into the end of the work week. There is
also potential for intermittent periods of sea fog until a cold
front pushes offshore this weekend. If fog were to develop, it is
not expected to be dense or create significant visibility
restrictions. The front pushes offshore late Saturday night and will
bring showers/storms that may linger into Sunday afternoon offshore.
Moderate northeasterly winds prevail in the wake of the front before
shifting back to southeasterly on Monday night.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Only one River Flood Warning remains in effect as of early Wednesday
morning. The Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) is currently
cresting in minor flood stage and is forecast to remain in minor
flood stage through Friday afternoon. We`re also continuing to
monitor the Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) as its secondary
crest is forecast to reach into minor flood stage on Friday
afternoon.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  72  88  69 /  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)  86  72  87  72 /  10  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  71  79  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste