201
FXUS64 KHGX 271740
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mostly cloudy skies to start this morning, but there will be some
breaks in the clouds as we go through the afternoon. Today will be
warmest day of the year so far with afternoon high temperatures
getting into the mid to even upper 80s in spots with heat indicies
climbing to the low 90s. Moderate to strong southerly winds will
develop this morning and persist through this evening with sustained
winds around 20 to 25mph with gusts to 30 to 35mph possible. Those
wind gusts will be more frequent along the coast, so a Wind Advisory
has been issued for Jackson, Wharton, Matagorda, Fort Bend,
Brazoria, Galveston, coastal Harris, and coastal Liberty counties
from 10am through 7pm this evening. The Advisory may get expanded
further inland during later updates if winds end up trending
stronger. While inland Harris County is not included in this
Advisory for now, those living in high rises will likely see higher
wind gusts than the rest of the inland areas and may want to secure
or bring in any loose items on balconies. Winds gradually subside
late this evening. Mostly cloudy skies return tonight with low
temperatures only getting down into the low to mid 70s - only a few
degrees away from record high minimum temperatures.

On Sunday, a low pressure system will be swinging through the
Southern and Central Plains bringing with it a line of showers and
storms. The Burleson-Brazos county areas may see some isolated
showers as early as the mid morning hours on Sunday, but could see
some additional popup showers and thunderstorms storms north of
Harris County through the early afternoon as the WAA increases ahead
of this system. A line of thunderstorms is expected to pass through
the BCS area as early as the late afternoon hours and continue to
slowly move eastwards through the evening into the overnight hours -
even into Monday morning. Conditions are looking fairly favorable
for thunderstorm development with CAPE values rising to near 2500+
J/kg, PWATS near 1.6-1.9", decent shear, and EBWD shear near 40kt.
The pop up thunderstorms in the afternoon and the thunderstorms that
develop along the line in the afternoon/overnight hours will have
the possibility to become strong or severe with all severe weather
hazards possible. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with
the slow moving, stronger thunderstorms with values up to 2-4"
possible. Normally wouldn`t be an issue, but soils are still fairly
saturated from the rainfall earlier this week. SPC has placed the a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms for areas north
of Harris County and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for most of the
rest of the region other than the immediate coast. WPC has placed
similar areas for Excessive Rainfall with areas north of Harris
County in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) and most of the rest of the
region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).

Temperatures on Sunday will again be warm, but not as warm as
today with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and overnight
low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Even though our focus for severe weather peaks out on Sunday,
potential for storms - and maybe even a strong to severe one -sticks
with us into Monday, and though there`s less confidence in specifics
beyond that, will likely be with us on and off through the week to
come. Beyond sporadic shots at showers and storms, we can expect
fairly seasonable conditions next week, with temperatures sticking
right around, or just a little bit on the warm side of seasonal
averages. Given that the upper pattern looks, well, downright
seasonable, this seems about right.

What makes Monday higher confidence than the rest of the days? Well,
the easy answer is the shorter lead time, and less opportunity for
little chaos butterflies to flap their wings and muck things up. And
that`s a lot of it, yes. But it`s probably also worth noting that
the vort max that will help support lift looks much more vigorous,
digging through the northern stream pattern to the Red River Valley.
Of course, that`s still a fair bit north of us, which is going to
cap the severe threat for our area somewhat. Still, with that in the
rough neighborhood, potentially a bit of diffluence around the upper
jet, and a fair amount of instability, Monday looks pretty good for
some scattered showers and storms, and perhaps even a strong to
severe storm at the very top end. Damaging straight line wind gusts
and hail would be the primary concerns here.

As we go deeper into the week, we hang onto ample moisture thanks to
persistent low level flow off the Gulf. Fronts will try to make it
here, and simply none will succeed. If you see anything other than a
south/southeast wind for the next several days, it`s either because
of storm outflow or because it`s night and we`re getting the typical
nocturnal light and variable wind pattern. Along with that, we`ll
see southwest flow aloft, connecting us with a stream of weak
shortwave troughs out of the Pacific. This should be enough to
continue several episodes of showers and storms through the week.
Trying to forecast the timing and amplitude of these subtle features
so far out is a fool`s errand, and I`m not really going to try that
hard. There are a lot of PoPs in the 30s and 40s smeared through
much of the week. Broadly speaking, Tuesday and Thursday currently
look like slightly favored days, but not worth emphasizing that
much. But, should any of these disturbances line up well with peak
heating and maximum instability for the day, we could again find
ourselves in a situation with a marginal threat for a couple of
severe storms.

Finally, after pooh-poohing the concept of fronts, it does look like
a cold front (with some pretty hefty air quotes around the "cold"
part) could make its way into the area. I...would not hold my breath
on seeing much impact here, even if it were to actually reach/cross
Southeast Texas. Maybe give us one modestly cooler night and give us
a bit of a reset on the unsettled weather train.
That`d be about it. But something to hope for. It won`t be much
longer until even that is wishful thinking.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Cloudy skies and VFR to MVFR CIGS can be expected across SE Texas this
afternoon. MVFR CIGS should fill in across the region again this
evening, with south/southeast winds of 15-20 knots and gusts of
25-30 knots prevailing overnight. Winds relax slightly Sunday
morning as the gradient weakens ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. Isolated showers/storms could develop during the
afternoon hours ahead of this boundary. Expect more numerous
storms during the late afternoon/evening on Sunday, especially
north of the I-10 corridor. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe at times.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Moderate to strong onshore winds and elevated seas will continue
through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through
Sunday. Minor coastal flooding may be expected in vulnerable
locations at times of high tide Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall
chances increase on Sunday with scattered showers and storms
persisting into Monday. Winds will gradually decrease late Sunday in
Monday, with lingering high seas keeping conditions dangerous to
small craft through Sunday night. Though more moderate, onshore flow
will persist through next week. Additional chances for rain and
storms will also continue at times through the new week, though
confidence in timing beyond Monday becomes low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  73  82  70 /  10  10  80  80
Houston (IAH)  85  74  84  72 /   0  10  50  60
Galveston (GLS)  80  73  80  73 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-226-227-
     235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Sunday night for GMZ350-
     355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs