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000
FXUS63 KICT 142332
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
632 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Uncertainty remains with convective evolution Monday evening, more
  certainty Monday night

* Fire danger tomorrow and Tuesday across central KS

* Cooler temperatures arrive for the second half of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

As of 215pm Sunday afternoon, midlevel ridging continues across the
central and southern Plains ahead of an amplifying trough across the
southwest US. At the surface, a weak surface trough axis has made
its way into the forecast area with northerly wind across central KS
and southerly winds continuing across southern KS. Little to no
temperature gradient exists within the trough axis with near 90
degree temperatures area-wide.

Transitioning into tonight, the cyclonic midlevel flow associated
with the southwest US trough will result in a secondary surface low
developing across southeast CO. An associated low-level mass
response will lift the aforementioned surface trough northward as a
warm front. Most of southern and southeast KS is likely to wake up
Monday under a thin layer of stratus. As boundary layer mixing
ensues, anticipate the stratus to scatter by midday with mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies thereafter.

The biggest challenge over the next 7 days arrives Monday afternoon
and Monday evening. The approaching southwestern trough will
gradually sharpen a dryline across western KS. Latest short range
deterministic and ensemble solutions suggest the dryline should
reside in the vicinity of Highway 183 or roughly Hays to Greensburg.
While the background environment across the warm sector is
quite favorable for severe storms, residual capping and lack of
large scale forcing is leading to high confidence for little to
no thunderstorm development prior to 7pm, at least on the
dryline. A few showers and/or storms are possible across
southeast KS as a weak, lead shortwave emerges from southwest
TX and traverses the area during the afternoon.

Beyond 7pm, large scale ascent will being to increase across the
dryline as the left exit region of the midlevel jet overspreads the
western half of the state. In addition, continued low-level
moistening should further erode inhibition for surface based
parcels. Even so, model solutions continue to struggle with
convective initiation along dryline in KS. That being said, there is
a fair amount of confidence for at least a storm or 2 developing in
the 7-10pm timeframe from portions of central KS into south central
KS. This scenario is supported by a few model solutions, including
the ECMWF. As mentioned previously, the background environment is
quite favorable for severe storms, potentially significant. Any
storm that does develop will be capable of all severe weather
hazards, including large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, damaging
winds up to 70 mph and tornadoes.

As the night progresses, increasing large scale ascent should result
in more widespread convection along the Pacific front/dryline. These
storms will quickly move to the east and northeast at  The primary
concern with the late night activity will be damaging wind.

Beyond Monday, the Pacific front will sweep eastward into far
eastern KS/western MO, setting the stage for additional storms just
east of the area Tuesday afternoon. Steepening lapse rates combined
with a vort lobe rotating around the main midlevel low may yield a
few high-based showers or storms Tuesday afternoon, primarily
along/north of Interstate 70. Furthermore, the residual pressure
gradient will create near-advisory level wind gusts with west to
northwest winds up to 45 mph. The next midlevel trough will emerge
from the northwesterly flow and eject across the late Wednesday into
Thursday, shunting a strong cold front through the area. A few
showers/storms are possible with its passage but the bigger story
will be the cooler temperatures. Morning lows Friday and Saturday
will be in the 30s to near 40.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through at least 10Z, then a few
impacts to aviation are possible.

A weak surface trough will keep winds light through the
overnight hours. Then, winds will become more consistent out of
the south during the early morning hours ushering in deeper
moisture and low clouds across the area. MVFR to potentially IFR
cigs will move in from the south during the morning hours.
However, VFR conditions should return by 15-18Z across most
areas as ceilings gradually rise. Southerly winds will continue
to increase during the late morning/early afternoon hours, and
gusts may be around 30 to 35 knots at times.

Chances for showers and storms will likely be after the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Monday: Latest forecast solutions have aligned with the dryline
remaining west of the forecast area during the afternoon hours. As a
result, fire danger will be lower as relative humidity values should
remain above 40 percent.

Tuesday: Gusty west to northwest winds up to 45 mph and relative
humidity values between 20-30 percent will create very high to
extreme fire danger. The main area of concern remains west of
Interstate 135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...BMB