062
FXUS61 KILN 280155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
955 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow will keep temperatures well above normal into the
early part of the week. A weak cold front will cross the region
late Monday night into Tuesday with showers and some
thunderstorms occurring well out ahead of the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Southwest flow will continue aloft through tonight with some
very weak embedded mid level energy lifting northeast across
Indiana and northern Ohio. This could lead to a few showers
across mainly our northwestern areas where we will linger a 20
pop into the overnight hours. Temperatures will remain mild
with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The region will remain in the same airmass through the period.
South winds will become breezy again during the day. At this
point, not seeing any mid level systems, so any clouds should
primarily be diurnal cumulus. With fewer clouds, temperatures
are forecast to be a bit warmer with highs in the lower to mid
80s. Lows will once again be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak frontal system approaches the Great Lakes on Monday with very
warm temperatures ahead of it. Increasing cloud cover across the
west may limit highs by a few degrees there, but generally nudged
highs up toward the NBM 50th percentile (2-3 degrees warmer than the
blend). This yields a high in the mid to upper 80s across the east.

The front and associated precipitation moves through Monday night.
Weak high pressure will briefly visit the Ohio Valley Tuesday before
exiting to the east by Tuesday night into early Wednesday. After a
brief "cool down" Tuesday under the surface ridge it will warm into
the 80s once again for Wednesday and Thursday.

Next organized frontal system approaches to close the work week.
Details in the guidance become uncertain as to how progressive this
system will be. Therefore, have kept a chance of precipitation to
close the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Southwest flow aloft will persist through Sunday with mid and
high level clouds possible at times through the TAF period.
Some LLWS will be possible later tonight through early Sunday
morning. Gusty southwest wind will redevelop through mid
morning on Sunday and continue through the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL