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000
FXUS63 KIND 252232
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
632 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern returns Friday into next week with above normal
temperatures and frequent storm chances

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight...

High pressure will remain in control at the surface, with upper
ridging aloft. Thus, only some high clouds are expected at times
through tonight.

Cool temperatures will continue overnight, with lows in the upper
30s to middle 40s.

Friday...

A warm front will approach central Indiana during the day. 850mb
winds will be from the southwest and gradually increasing in speed.
This will bring in some moisture to the area.

Isentropic lift will increase ahead of the warm front, and some
upper level energy moving in behind the exiting upper ridge will add
to the forcing. There looks to be adequate moisture and forcing for
likely PoPs across the western forecast area, with lower PoPs east
where moisture will be less.

Some weak instability will move into portions of the south and west,
so an isolated thunderstorm will be possible there.

Temperatures will be warmer, with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

By Saturday, central Indiana should be well positioned inside the
warm sector, with surface temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low
80s Saturday afternoon. Temperatures should increase even further
into Sunday as southerly low level winds increase. The current
expectation is for highs in the low 80s on Sunday, but the daily
record of 86 for Indianapolis is not out of reach, depending on
cloud cover from upstream MCSs.

Besides a residual 800-700mb boundary the overall environment
will lack sufficient lift for convection. This should keep
conditions dry, but a few weak elevated showers cannot be ruled
out. Given the high probability of robust upstream convection over
(MO/IA), a few left over boundaries or upscale growth into the
Ohio Valley could change this current line of thinking. Best
chances for any thunderstorms would likely be over western
portions of Indiana.

Late Sunday through early next week, a second shortwave will
approach from the west, along with a trailing frontal providing an
increased thunderstorm threat. Its still too far out to determine
severity, but current parameter spacing expectations could lead
to deep convection and a non-zero severe threat. This should
become more clear in the coming days.

Day 8-14: Multi-model ensemble mean continues to show strong signal
for above normal temperatures. No large-scale systems appear present
to produce widespread/significant precipitation, so smaller scale
features interacting with instability look to be the primary impetus
for convection. So, near or below normal precipitation is expected
during this period.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Impacts:

- Winds becoming southeast on Friday, may gust at times late day
- Scattered showers possible Friday afternoon

Discussion:

Much of central Indiana will remain on the periphery of a broad
cloud shield associated with an upper wave tracking through the
lower Ohio Valley tonight. Expect just scattered high clouds
overnight with coverage increasing Friday morning as a warm front
approaches from the southwest. The front will track into the region
by Friday afternoon with the potential for scattered showers.
Additional chances for rain and convection will come later on Friday
night.

Light easterly winds will continue tonight...then veer to southeast
on Friday in response to the approaching warm front. Winds will
become occasionally gusty late day Friday and Friday evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Ryan