Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
465 FXUS62 KKEY 301951 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 At the surface, winds have been southeasterly for a majority of the afternoon, while winds just above the surface and through the lower levels are more southerly. This southeast to south steering flow has helped with the development of cloud streamers north of the island chain, which have congealed into showers and isolated thunderstorms. The 12z sounding`s convective temperature was 79F, and with temperatures in the lower 80s, it is suffice to say that a few bolts of lightning are not a surprise in the more robust storms. One overachieving thunderstorm north of Marathon has remained mostly stationary and dumped upwards of 3.5" of rainfall in the Bayside waters southwest of Cape Sable. Rainfall totals in other showers north of the island chain range from a tenth of an inch to over an inch and a half. Most of this activity has missed the island chain this afternoon. High pressure in the western North Atlantic has started to slowly weaken, and winds have dropped a few knots at marine observation platforms in the nearshore waters and at land-based observation sites. Heading into tonight, have decided to increase rain chances and include a slight chance of thunder. CIMSS MIMIC TPW highlights a small tongue of moisture that has nosed its way into the area that is fueling the current activity. MOS guidance is suggesting that this pattern will continue through tomorrow and possibly tomorrow night. Most hi-res models hint at tomorrow being mainly in the eastern half of the forecast area, so we will continue to monitor trends for this and adjust the forecast accordingly. Have held off on including thunder for any additional periods, but this also may change with the next package. After Wednesday night, forecast soundings show atmospheric moisture gradually decreasing. We are expecting below normal rain through the remainder of the week into next week. In terms of winds through the weekend, high pressure in the western North Atlantic will vary in terms of strength. A weakened gradient is expected through tomorrow followed by peaks and lulls in the wind through Sunday night. Temperatures through the extended forecast will generally remain seasonable, with highs reaching the mid 80s each day and lows dropping into the mid 70s overnight. Dew points will oscillate between the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered southwest of Bermuda will continue to meander in the western North Atlantic through mid-week. With the high slowly weakening, east to southeast breezes will slacken, becoming gentle to moderate. As the high refortifies in the west North Atlantic late in the week and into the weekend, an extended period of generally moderate easterly breezes is expected. Breezes for this period will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, then lull during the daytime. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Brief reduction in CIGS and VIS are possible within passing showers, mainly at MTH, through this evening. Near surface winds will continue to be east to southeast at near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1992, the daily record low temperature of 59F was recorded in Key West. This is also the latest in the spring that a temperature below 60 degrees has ever been recorded in Key West. Temperature records for April in Key West date back to 1873. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 75 84 75 85 / 20 10 20 10 Marathon 75 84 75 85 / 30 20 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest