479
FXUS64 KLIX 101727
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1227 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Remainder of Severe TS watch has been canceled as the biggest
hazard for severe storms has moved east.

Cold front is moving through the area this morning and will be slow
to do so. Dry air will move over the area bringing cloud cover to an
end later this morning and shoving the sh/ts SE. The front is
expected to hang up over the gulf Saturday and Sat night.

Upper trough lobes are oriented almost W-E today, but this will
change with time. The upper ridging near Alaska today will
eventually begin to build into the NW CONUS by late today, this will
in turn force the upper trough from Cali through the inner-mountain
west to begin moving SE and orient itself more meridionally. The
flow over our area will be zonal today through Saturday but as the
upper trough gets a bit closer and orients N-S, it will cause a
strong divergent area as it couples with the zonal flow to the
south. This will set the stage for several disturbances to be
produced after Saturday as there will be more upper support for
these storms to develop.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Early Sunday, we should see the sfc front slowly begin to lift
northward making it to the coast Sunday night and to the NE of the
area by noon Monday. This will help our area have more sfc based
instability starting late Sunday into much of the week. Small
distubances will be produced by this upper trough to the west and
will have support downstream as there will be plenty of upper
divergent flow due to the interaction between the upper trough and
the old zonal flow over the gulf south that will now start to become
an upper ridge pattern over the eastern gulf into FL. The problem
with each of these disturbances is to find where they will be each
day so we will know which areas will most likely get storms and
watering. These disturbances will be mesoscale in nature so there
will be some investigation for each one of them starting late Sunday
and this could be the case through the remainder of the week. Each
one of these disturbances will be fully capable of producing severe
storms and very heavy rainfall. They are expected to be transitory,
but there could still be some nuissance flooding with strong rain
rates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

With the front passing down into the Gulf, there are a few
lingering low clouds/ceilings pushing KMSY to MVFR status. Other
locations are VFR and KMSY should be clearing in the next hours
also. VFR conditions expected to continue through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A cold front will settle over the northern gulf Saturday. As this
front moves through, winds will rise to around advisory criteria,
but these winds should be short lived and flags should come up late
this evening and fall by mid morning Saturday. Winds will ease
through the day Saturday and remain that way through Sunday morning.
Winds will then begin to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt as the
old boundary starts to move north. Strong/severe storms along with
widespread strong winds will be possible Monday through Tuesday as
disturbances move over the northern gulf. There is a possiblity that
strong disturbances impact the northern gulf waters through the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  81  61  77 /   0   0  10  30
BTR  65  87  66  83 /   0   0  10  30
ASD  63  87  64  83 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  70  85  71  84 /   0   0  10  20
GPT  64  86  66  82 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  62  87  63  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT
     Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-557.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ550-
     552-555-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT
     Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-538-557.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ552-
     555-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...TE