206
FXUS65 KLKN 291015
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
315 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper-level disturbance will bring a few showers to
northern Elko county this afternoon along with gusty west to
northwest winds for much of northern Nevada. Gusty northwest winds
will continue into Tuesday in addition to bringing colder air into
the state for Wednesday with highs only in the 50s. Dry conditions
and a warming trend along with lighter winds are expected for the
latter part of the week but another storm system could bring more
active weather to the region over the weekend and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night

Brisk west to northwest surface winds are expected to today
across much of northern Nevada as moderately strong mid-level
winds move over the region. Downslope enhancement of winds is
expected leeward of mountain ranges across much of Elko county so
a wind advisory is in place. Associated upper- level trough
moving through Idaho today will promote a few showers and
thunderstorms across northern Elko county today. Chances for any
precipitation are highest across the Jarbidge Wilderness area. High
temperatures will range from the 50s and 60s I-80 northward and
lower 70s across northern Nye county. Lows tonight will be in the
mid 20s across much of ELko county with some mid 30s remaining
across northern Nye county.

Breezy west winds, albeit slightly lower in speed, are expected
again on Tuesday as a mid-level jet remains overhead. Winds of
15-25mph from the west will be common, switching to the northwest
by late afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be a bit cooler
across northern Nevada with highs mainly in the 50s. Lows tonight
and Tuesday night will be in the mid 20s across much of ELko
county with some mid 30s remaining across northern Nye county.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Sunday.

Wednesday afternoon and evening a positively tilted trough will
begin to propagate east and out of the region. Northwest winds
will be elevated with the trough passage particularly across
ridgetops of northern and eastern Nevada. In general winds may
reach 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Some ridgetops may
experience stronger afternoon winds. Some isolated to scattered
snow showers are also forecasted across Elko county, mainly north
of I-80 to the NV/ID state line. Generally any accumulating
snowfall will occur in the Jarbidge Wilderness area, Owyhee, and
Mountain City areas, with up to half an inch forecasted in those
areas. Elsewhere, fairly quiet weather is expected. Highs will be
in the 40s to mid 50s, with nighttime lows in the mid 20s to low
30s.

Thursday and Friday some weak ridging moves in behind the
departing trough from Wednesday. Winds are forecasted to be out
the west to southwest at times allowing for warm air to advect in
and drive up temperatures. Highs Thursday are forecasted to range
in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most, with highs Friday ranging
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Weather conditions are expected to
be dry, with mostly sunny skies. Lows Thursday will warm to the
mid to upper 30s, and will warm again Friday night into the 40s.

Saturday, models and ensembles remain unsettled on a solution,
with indications of an off-shore low approaching the west coast
sometime Saturday. The placement and intensity of the off-shore
low are the details that still need to be sorted out. For Nevada,
Saturday looks to be the warmest day on the horizon with
southwesterly winds driving temperatures into the mid to upper
70s. Clouds will be increasing throughout the day. Lows will
generally be in the mid to lower 40s. Isolated to scattered
showers do creep into the forecast in the afternoon Saturday,
mainly along an north of the I-80 corridor. There is still much
uncertainly over the showers, with currently a 10-30% chance of
occurrence.

Sunday, ensembles are seeing a stronger signature of a pattern
change, likely indicating the offshore low from Saturday
progressing into the intermountain west. Clusters 2 and 3 with
the heaviest ensemble weights in the GFS (57%) and Canadian (45%)
are the clusters showing the strongest signature of a trough
located in the general vicinity of the OR/CA coast. Generally,
isolated to scattered showers will be possible with 10-30% chance
of occurrence at this point. Areas most likely to see showers are
along and north of the I-80 corridor, however areas across
Northern Lander and Northern Eureka could see some as well.
Rainfall amounts are challenging to forecast do to the
uncertainty in large scale system placement, but no major
rainfall amounts are currently forecasted. Highs Sunday will cool
down a tad, ranging in the mid to upper 60s, with lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the
next 24 hours. Westerly winds will increase across the region
this morning, with afternoon and evening winds of 10-15G20-25KTS
at most terminals.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams,
creeks, and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to
continued snow melt and recent rainfall. Cooler temperatures are
expected the next few days, including freezing temperatures at
night at higher elevations, which will likely slow high elevation
snow melt. A few showers are expected this afternoon across far
northern Nevada but are expected to be insignificant in terms of
hydrology with a few hundredths of an inch of rain at best.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage and will likely
remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in minor flood
stage and is forecast to gradually rise in the coming days,
but remain in minor flood stage.

The Humboldt River at Comus is currently in minor flood stage and
is forecast to gradually rise in the coming days, remaining in
minor flood stage.

The Marys River near Deeth is currently in action stage and is
forecast to gradually fall over the next several days, falling
below action state as early as this afternoon.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
is forecast to gradually fall over the next several days,
remaining in action stage.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is currently in minor flood
stage. The river is forecast to gradually fall below minor flood
stage late this week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...South Central Elko
County...Southeastern Elko County.

&&

$$

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