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000
FXUS64 KLUB 131944
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
244 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A warm and breezy Saturday is in progress across the Texas South
Plains under sunny skies. 2 pm temperatures according to the West
Texas Mesonet were uniformly in the 80s with some upper 80s noted
across the southwest South Plains. Winds were mainly in the 15 to 20
mph range with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 mph. The mild and dry
weather will continue tonight and on into Sunday.

Also at 2 pm, a weak dryline was located just to the east and
southeast of the forecast area. Tonight, shallow moisture return is
expected to make it back through all but the far southwest Texas
Panhandle area, leading to a mild night for most. However, the
shallow moisture will be quickly mixed/swept east Sunday morning as
low-level winds become more westerly in response to low pressure
migrating eastward across the TX and OK Panhandles. Mid-tropospheric
flow accompanying the low-amplitude ridging aloft will not be
particularly strong on Sunday, but the downsloping component will
increase the compressional warming contribution and the forecast 850
mb temps will warm into 25-27 degrees C range. The result should be
a couple degrees of warming from today and the high may reach 90
degrees at Lubbock for the first time in 2024 - which would be
around the average date we see our first 90 reading each year. Highs
in the Rolling Plains could reach 93 or so. With the very warm
temperatures and dry regime RH values will drop to near 10 percent
across the Caprock Sunday afternoon. With the recent rainfall and
wind speeds not being out of the ordinary this will limit the threat
of any rapid fire spread, except possibly for the Southwest portions
of the South Plains where they missed out on much of the rain. In
this area the fire threat may become elevated Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

An active weather period is still expected Monday into Monday night
as a relatively broad upper level low approaches from the west.
Strengthening southwest flow aloft will pull a shield of high-
level cloudiness overhead early in the day in tandem with a strong
midlevel jet streak. At the surface, guidance is still
advertising a northward surge of moisture during the morning hours
which will lift dewpoints well into the 50s off the Caprock.
Combined with strengthening southwesterly surface flow west of the
escarpment associated with a deepening surface trough, this will
gradually sharpen a dryline over our area during the afternoon
hours. Despite strong winds aloft, cloud cover is expected to
inhibit mixing enough to keep winds relatively subdued with most
solutions now keeping our area below wind advisory criteria on
Monday. This shift towards slightly weaker winds also results in
questions regarding the precise positioning of the dryline, with
consensus now placing the dryline near the edge of the Caprock
Escarpment by Monday afternoon. Recent model runs have continued
the trend towards a slower and slightly deeper upper low, and
there is significant uncertainty regarding whether convection will
be able to initiate off the dryline circulation alone during the
late afternoon, or if storms hold off until the Pacific front
eventually overtakes the dryline later in the evening, or if
inhibition is simply too strong locally and storms end up east of
our area entirely. For now these uncertainties support keeping
PoPs fairly broad-brushed, but regardless of if/when storms do
develop, any storms would likely become severe (especially off the
Caprock) given the strong deep-layer shear and instability
present.

Any lingering convection will quickly exit to our east late Monday
night as the strong Pacific front continues to punch eastward. A dry
airmass will settle over the region on Tuesday with west winds
looking to approach advisory criteria Tuesday morning within a
strong post-frontal surface pressure gradient. Despite the frontal
passage, temperatures will remain warm both Tuesday and Wednesday
given the continuing downslope flow component and elevated layer
thicknesses. Guidance then points to a potential pattern change
during the late week period, with a stronger front bringing cooler
temperatures and possible additional rain chances Friday into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR Conditions will persist for the next 24 hours, with some
breezes out of the S-SW around 12-18 kts this afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...33