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FXUS64 KLUB 262315
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
615 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Tonight, a short-lived mid-level zonal regime will situate over the
Southern Plains ahead of a trough in the Desert Southwest. At the
surface, dry southwesterly winds will keep the dryline east of our
CWA. As the night progresses, surface winds in the eastern half of
our CWA will shift southerly amid the strengthening low-level jet
allowing the dryline to recede westward.

By tomorrow morning, a convergence boundary will form as a result of
the low-level jet allowing the possibility of a few storms in the
eastern half of our CWA. Despite the surface instability, convective
inhibition just above the surface will keep any convection elevated
primarily posing a hail threat. The dryline will also move towards
the Rolling Plains into the afternoon. Behind the dryline,
moderately strong westerly winds will encompass much of the Caprock
perhaps approaching Wind Advisory criteria. As the day continues,
the trough will enter the Panhandle region with the maximized jet in
our area around 0z. For more details, see the long-term discussion
below.

PND

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The most notable weather in the long term forecast period will be
tomorrow evening and night where strong to severe convection is
possible in the the eastern Rolling Plains and the southeast Texas
Panhandle along and east of the dryline. Latest CAMs and high
resolution model guidance is pointing towards a slim area in the far
eastern Rolling Plains and the extreme southeast Texas Panhandle
where storms may initiate in the moist sector with forecast MLCAPE
exceeding 3000 J/kg. Combined with effective bulk shear around 50
knots, supercells capable of very large hail are likely if storms
initiate in the forecast area. Dryline position will be key for
tomorrow`s severe weather potential. Even if storms initiate in
our far eastern column of counties, E-NE storm motion of 30+ knots
may not give convection enough time to organize and form strong
mesocyclones in our area. Forecast hodographs favor right moving
supercells, but some left movers may shoot north and produce large
hail. Typically large hail is the main severe hazard when we see
convection in the early stages and with as much instability as
mentioned earlier, very large hail up to baseball size will be
possible with any thunderstorms that initiate and have time to
form vigorous updrafts. But again, we want to emphasize that
chances of severe thunderstorms in the eastern Rolling Plains and
southeast Texas Panhandle is low and coverage would likely be
isolated but any thunderstorms that develop will most certainly
intensify quickly. One last caveat is that models are showing a
round of convection Saturday morning in the Rolling Plains which
may result in a messy surface boundary situation which may effect
timing and placement of afternoon convection for better or worse.
A remnant outflow boundary could enhance potential for convective
initiation farther west or persistent cloud cover could limit
daytime heating and reduce chances of any thunderstorm initiation.

After tomorrow evening/night, much quieter weather is expected with
zonal flow aloft, increasing thickness, and breezy west to southwest
winds leading to warming temperatures and low chances of
precipitation until Wednesday when thunderstorm chances return but
long range models are showing large variance. Temperatures are
forecast to warm into the 80s on Monday and then rising into the low
90s on Tuesday before long range models show increasing chances of
precipitation and cooler air with a shortwave trough or at least
a more meridional component in the upper level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

LLWS appears more likely after midnight at CDS as a strong LLJ
unfolds. Else, VFR may be interrupted at times Saturday morning
at CDS where a retreating dryline will bring a small window for
stratus and more likely a round of TS, before drier and gusty SW
winds shove the dryline farther east by the afternoon. LBB and
PVW remain quiet with gusty W-SW winds resuming by late morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>035-039-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...93