Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 271622
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1122 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Dry conditions are expected through the period with below normal
temperatures continuing through tonight. Other than an increase
in cloud cover throughout the day, not much appreciable weather is
expected thanks to sfc ridging in place.
Another night of cold temperatures is expected with frost
possible across much of the state by Thursday morning. Some
localized at/below freezing temperatures possible as well, mainly
across northeast Arkansas. Sfc ridge will begin to shift away from
the area on Thursday with light srly winds returning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
The long term will start off on a quiet note. The upper pattern will
feature broad ridging over the Plains/MS Valley regions with a pair
of troughs located off the Pacific/Atlantic coasts, respectively,
through the end of the weekend. Changes are forthcoming however
heading into early Monday. The aforementioned W coast system will
track Ewrd across the Four Corners region into the Rockies on
Monday. Going into Tuesday, the trough will eject into the Plains.
At the surface, high pressure is anticipated to be situated across
the SE CONUS with a low, possibly two of them, tracking SW to NE
across the plains states. Across AR, winds will be S/SWrly between
these features promoting above average temperatures and increasing
moisture across the region. By Monday afternoon, another area of low
pressure will pass to the NW of AR, however the upper level trough
will pivot towards the state. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop along and ahead of cold front beneath large scale forcing
for ascent. Given the orientation of the upper level forcing to the
cold front, rainfall could be heavy at times and train over some of
the same locations. It is still too early to focus in on severe
weather specifics, so that will be hashed out in better detail as
the system approaches in time.
High temperatures will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s through
Monday with colder air filtering into the state on Tuesday, thus
much cooler high temperatures Tuesday afternoon. Low temperatures
will moderate each morning going forward with lows mainly in the mid
50s to mid 60s. As with colder expected highs on Tuesday, lows
Tuesday morning will be chilly compared to the previous several of
mornings. Expect lows to be in the upper 40s to lower 60s Monday
morning and upper 30s to upper 40s Tuesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
VFR flight category expected over the entire forecast period from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. No concern with the
degradation of CIGS or VSBY from VFR flight category. Surface winds
across the northern, central, and southwestern terminals will be
variable with light winds as surface high pressure meanders across
the state. The sites of KPBF and KLLQ in the southeast will
experience established winds out of the north-northeast before
becoming variable later Wednesday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 36 66 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 36 68 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 34 65 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 36 67 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 39 68 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 39 67 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 35 68 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 34 66 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 36 65 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 37 65 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 37 68 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 35 66 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 38 64 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...74