542
FXUS64 KLZK 010520 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1220 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a shortwave
trough over the southeastern CONtinental United States (CONUS),
moving east while weak shortwave ridging was located over
Arkansas. Visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies over
the state this afternoon while surface observations showed
temperatures in the lower 80s across Arkansas. Humidity remained
fairly high with temperatures in the 80s with most relative
humidity values still checking in at the 60 percent range despite
approaching the peak heating hours of the day.

For tomorrow (Wednesday), a shortwave trough that is currently in
place over Baja California will move east towards Arkansas,
however it is not expected to spread large scale forcing for
ascent over the area until Thursday morning. As the trough
approaches, it will bring some reinforcing weak ridging back over
the state, leading to another mostly clear and dry day for
Arkansas. There is a weak boundary in play tomorrow across the
northwestern portion of the state, so an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over the northwestern third of
the area. However, the subsidence from the weak ridging aloft and
weak high pressure at the surface is expected to win out making
for a warmer, but generally less humid day tomorrow.

On Thursday, as the upper level trough arrives, southerly winds
and the lack of large scale forcing for subsidence will allow
deeper low-level moisture to take place over the state. With
forcing for ascent associated with the trough moving west to east
over the area beginning tomorrow morning, expect initially
scattered showers and thunderstorms to grow more numerous and
spread east, bringing likely rain chances over most areas by
Thursday afternoon. Forecast instability over the area is very low
at this time, so severe weather is not impossible, but is
considered very unlikely for Thursday and Thursday night.

This upcoming weekend, Thursday`s shortwave trough offers a
prelude to a gentle but meaningful pattern shift that will set up
over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. The flow aloft
becomes established as southwesterly with a persistent ridge over
the Atlantic Coast. This flow regime is expected to remain in
place over Arkansas from Friday through mid week next week,
allowing several upper level disturbances to move over the state
while lee-side cyclogenesis anchors surface troughing over the
high plains. This will generally keep low-level southerly flow
leading from the Gulf of Mexico across Arkansas, keeping plentiful
moisture in place through this period. The upper level
disturbances will serve as approximate daily bursts of lift that
result in at least scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast each day Friday through Tuesday.

This period will not be a complete rainout, and some days will
have more widespread showers and storms than others. Overall
severe weather changes don`t look to be overly high as there`s not
one overarching system that comes through providing a significant
threat for any given day. If you think about the energy contained
within one significant severe weather outbreak, imagine taking
all of that energy but dispersing it into several smaller packets
over several day`s worth of time. It`s not that we don`t have
enough energy in this regime to support the occurrence of severe
weather, rather the energy is expected to be dispersed enough to
support an unsettled weather pattern with some showers and storms
each day, but really no day where everyone sees rain. Hit and miss
showers and storms with a marginal threat for severe storms each
day looks to be the most likely outcome. Any severe storms are
expected to be isolated in nature with the occasional large hail
or damaging wind event possibly highlighting the scope of severe
storms on any given day. We will have to watch the forecast daily
and see if the severe weather chances increase one day more than
the others, but this far out, no individual day stands out apart
from the rest. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the 80s
and lows generally in the 60s each day.

Cavanaugh

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Broad cirrus shield was beginning to move into the Wrn portions of
the FA from ongoing precip in N/Ern OK. Expect VFR condns to
prevail thru the night w/ incrsg high cloud cover at most areas.
Some patchy fog and reduced VISBY`s may be seen at select Cntrl
terminals, but confidence remains low. Winds should settle out
overnight, w/ Srly flow resuming on Wed and VFR condns prevailing
thru the end of the PD.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  62  82  63 /  10   0  50  70
Camden AR         89  64  76  64 /   0  10  70  70
Harrison AR       80  62  77  59 /  30  10  70  70
Hot Springs AR    87  64  74  63 /  10  10  80  80
Little Rock   AR  88  63  81  65 /   0  10  70  80
Monticello AR     88  65  80  65 /   0   0  50  70
Mount Ida AR      86  65  74  62 /  10  10  90  80
Mountain Home AR  83  62  81  60 /  20   0  60  70
Newport AR        88  63  84  65 /   0   0  40  70
Pine Bluff AR     88  63  80  65 /   0   0  60  80
Russellville AR   86  64  77  62 /  10  10  70  70
Searcy AR         87  61  82  63 /   0   0  60  70
Stuttgart AR      88  64  82  65 /   0   0  60  80

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...72