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000
FXUS62 KMHX 221334
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
934 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will continue to move away from the
coast today. High pressure briefly builds into the area this
afternoon through Tuesday followed by a cold front with limited
moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure
builds back into the area for the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 930 AM Monday...Made some minor tweaks to the dewpoints
across the OBX for this update to catch up to current trends,
but otherwise the spirit of the forecast remains intact.
Widespread cloud cover remains over ENC this morning as an
upper level trough begins to pivot through the area while low
pressure well off the Carolina coast tracks NE`wards while
deepening keeping things gusty along our coasts. Did leave the
precip forecast alone as current thinking is there is at least
a SChc for a very light shower or two along the coast and OBX
today.

Prev Disc...The last of the rain associated with the
initial offshore low is currently moving off of the Outer Banks
early this morning. A second low is forecast to develop today a
little further offshore than the first low and track northeast
into late this afternoon. Question is whether any rainfall from
this low will impact eastern NC. Consensus of the guidance keeps
the bulk of rainfall just offshore. Decided to extend aerial
coverage a little further westward and inland and to increase
PoPs to low end chance immediate coast to account for the spread
in guidance as the GFS/FV3 are wetter then consensus.
Nonetheless not expecting much accumulation if the rainfall does
materialize as even the wetter models have very low QPF.

Well below normal temps will be the most noticeable feature in
today and tonight weather. The developing offshore low will
produce a considerable amount of cloudiness today along with a
brisk northerly flow which will result in highs temps only in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...As the second coastal low tracks well
away, high pressure will build into the area in earnest tonight.
This will produce clearing skies and diminishing winds
resulting in strong radiational cooling and cold overnight lows.
Expecting min temps in the mid to upper 30s across much of
inland eastern NC tonight. There could be a brief period of
patchy, light frost in the typically colder sheltered rural
locations, but since this will be very localized and light, will
hold off on issuing a Frost Advisory at this time. Along the
coast lows will be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating early in the week, mostly dry
front moving through mid-week, and another high pressure setting
up through the weekend.

Tuesday...Chilly start to the day. High pressure builds into
the area resulting in clear skies, with highs near 70 inland,
mid 60s for beaches.

Wednesday...Low sweeps to our north, pinching the pressure
gradient with the high to our south. This looks to prevent
decoupling Wednesday morning, leaving lows in the upper 40s to
start the day inland. Along the coast lows will be in the mid to
upper 50s. High pressure to our south moves offshore through
the day Wednesday, causing winds to veer from southerly to
westerly through the day. Wednesday looks to be the gustiest day
in the long term, with ample mixing allowing gusts of 20kts
inland, slightly higher for OBX. Fortunately RHs will be well
above 35%, so fire weather should not be a concern. Highs look
to be in the mid to upper 70s inland, low 70s for the coast,
aided by the south veering west flow through the day. Wednesday
night a dry cold front will move through the region from NW to
SE. Atmospheric column looks to be fairly dry during the weak
cold front passage, preventing the inclusion of mentionable PoPs
for Wednesday. As the front moves through Wednesday night,
northerly wind gusts will be increasing, but should remain
below 30 kts.

Thursday to Sunday...High pressure to our north keeps us dry,
with high temps incrementally increasing each day. Into the
weekend, omega block setup initiates at upper levels. This will
allow the high pressure to linger through the remainder of the
long term. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will
encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on
if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will
give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of
precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high
offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. Removed all
PoP mentions with this update for Saturday as high looks to
shelter us from any incoming precip. Sunday the high to our NE
moves south, settling just offshore or off the SC coast as we
get into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 635 AM Monday...Expecting a mainly VFR TAF through the
period. There will be enough moisture to produce widespread
clouds today with bases 5-10K ft. Northerly winds will gust to
20 kt through the afternoon. Tonight skies will become clear and
winds will diminish but the low levels are forecast to be too
dry for development of fog.


LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Friday with high pressure dominating the long term.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 635 AM Monday...SCA`s remain in effect for the coastal
waters and sounds. Strong northerly winds will continue today as
a second area of low pressure develops off the NC coast and
continues to produce N winds 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas
this morning will continue 6-9 ft subsiding slightly to 5-8 ft
this afternoon. As high pressure builds over the waters tonight,
winds will gradually diminish to 10-15 kt late. As a result,
seas over the northern and southern waters will subside to 3-5
ft late. Seas will remain elevated around 6 ft over outer the
central waters into at least Tue though.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...6 ft seas (7-8ft for gulf stream) will
linger through Wednesday from the one-two punch of the deepening
low offshore Tuesday and stronger pressure gradient winds Wednesday.
Wind gusts for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound will be near 25
kts during the morning/early afternoon hours Wednesday from a
pinched gradient, before decreasing Wednesday evening. As a dry
cold front moves southeastward Wednesday night, northerly winds
will pick up behind it, gusting near 25 kts for all waters
except for the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers, and coastal waters from
Cape Lookout to Surf City. Remainder of the long term looks to
be quiet with seas settling to 3-5 feet Thursday-Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/RCF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...JME/RJ
MARINE...JME/RJ