521
FXUS64 KMOB 181002
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
502 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 501 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

More heavy rain and severe storms are possible today as a weak
surface boundary continues to slowly sink southward. South of this
boundary a very unstable atmosphere remains with MLCAPE values
around 2500 J/Kg and deep layer shear values around 55 knots.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with the
stronger storms. A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out
especially in the vicinity of a enhanced low-level shear near the
surface boundary. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through
Saturday morning. While the bulk of the heavier rain will move east
of the area this morning, additional development this afternoon and
evening is forecast as the upper low moves across the Tennessee
Valley. Dry conditions will follow late tonight through Sunday as
the upper level shortwave over the eastern Conus moves off, allowing
a building upper ridge over the Southern Plains to shift east to
over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. A High rip current risk
remains through the weekend.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s (3 to 6 degrees
below normal) along and southeast of I-65, and from 80 to 85 degrees
to the northeast of I-65 where rain chances are lower. Lows tonight
will be in the mid/upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast, or
about 3 to 6 degrees above normal. High temperatures will rebound to
near to above seasonal norms on Sunday with the increasing upper
subsidence, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. /22

&&

.SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Monday Through Friday)
Issued at 501 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Much of the work week remains dry in the wake of this weekend`s
storms. Weak ridging over the Southern Plains begins to nudge east
toward the region early in the work week. Subtle shortwaves slide
around the ridge as the trough dives deeper into the Atlantic early
next week, but these shortwaves will only act to briefly increase
cloud cover. The ridge aloft begins to flatten toward the Gulf as we
head into Thursday and Friday as a shortwave pivots into the
MidSouth and Southeast. A surface high remains draped down through
our region through Thursday, but may begin to relegate back into the
western Atlantic by Friday. That surface high`s grasp over the local
area should keep the showers and storms (associated with the
aforementioned shortwave) further to our north on Thursday. However,
the influence of the surface high may not be strong enough to
protect the local area on Friday, thus showers and storms are
possible in the afternoon hours.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains MODERATE on Monday and
eventually falls to a LOW risk Tuesday through Friday. RCMOS
guidance does indicate a very brief bump to MODERATE is possible
Tuesday afternoon for the beaches in northwest Florida. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow
prevails through tonight, becoming light and variable early next
week. A light southerly to southeasterly flow is established Tuesday
afternoon and continues through Wednesday night. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  67  88  67  89  68  86  68 /  90  10  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   78  69  86  69  86  70  84  70 / 100  20  10   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      79  70  85  71  85  71  84  72 /  90  30  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   81  64  87  64  89  63  89  63 /  80  40  10   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  84  63  87  64  89  65  90  65 /  50  20   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      82  63  85  64  86  64  87  64 /  60  40  10   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   79  65  88  64  89  63  88  63 /  90  20  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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