821
FXUS63 KMPX 051933
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
233 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather is expected throughout the upcoming week
  with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

- Strong southeasterly winds are expected Monday into Monday
  evening, particularly in western MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Its a gorgeous Sunday afternoon across the Upper Midwest with
light winds, temperatures in the upper 60s with only some
diurnal Cu thanks to a surface high overhead. By this evening,
the surface high shifts over the Great Lakes with the 500mb
ridge axis over Minnesota and Wisconsin through the first half
of the day Monday. With strong WAA in place, tomorrow will
likely be the warmest day of the period with highs in the low to
mid 70s. A strong, negatively tilted trough and its associated
surface low will swing into Wyoming and South Dakota during this
time, setting the stage for some gusty southeasterly winds for
the western half of the forecast area. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for much of the late morning through the evening across
western Minnesota. Clouds will increase through the day from
west to east as the aforementioned low continues to move
northeastward across the Dakotas, but we should make it through
the majority of the afternoon without any precip. CAMs depict a
line of showers moving from southwest Minnesota to the northeast
with the front as the low wraps up over the Dakotas Monday
night into early Tuesday. As for thunder chances, while it cant
be ruled out entirely, they are low due to the timing of the
best lift along the front. QPF wise, a quick 0.5-0.75 is
expected through Tuesday afternoon with higher amounts possible
across western and southern Minnesota. Temperatures on Tuesday
will still be in the mid 60s to low 70s with clouds gradually
clearing late in the afternoon behind the precip.

Heading into Tuesday night, the low and its parent 500mb wave
appear to stall out over the western Dakotas. This will allow
for continued shower chances throughout the next couple of days.
We will find ourselves in the warm sector of this broad system
through Wednesday. By Thursday, the system finally makes some
eastward progress as the ridge across the Northeast breaks down.
QPF over these few days will amount to 0.25-0.50 or so, with
the highest totals across the southern third of Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. Late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday
will have the highest precip chances. With the cold front
finally moving through on Thursday, highs will fall into the low
60s with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Non-zero chances
for showers will continue through the end of the week with
temperatures gradually warming into next weekend. Looking ahead,
a stretch of drier weather looks increasingly likely with mild
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Lots of VFR this duration as precipitation looks to hold off
until Monday evening. SKC conditions through tonight with high
clouds increasing during the day Monday. Winds will become
southerly in the 5-10kt range this afternoon, backing to SE
this evening through Monday. Speeds then expected to increase to
around 15G25kt during the day Monday, likely a bit higher over
western MN.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.
THU...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM CDT Monday for Brown-
     Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Pope-
     Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC