000
FXUS63 KMPX 161151
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
651 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds today, with easterly gusts of 40-50 mph likely.
  (potentially higher during showers and thunderstorms).

- Widespread rain will spread across the area today, with
  showers and thunderstorms continuing through Wednesday
  morning.

- Below-normal temperatures Friday through Sunday with highs in
  the 40s and 50s expected. Sub-freezing lows are likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Radar remains clear early this morning, despite a decent elevated
mixed layer with lapse rates 7-8 C/km. This is due to lack of
forcing at present. The EML will dissipate as an upper level
shortwave approaches from South Dakota. This will
drive warm air advection and increase the forcing required for
showers to begin in southwestern Minnesota around the morning
commute. While forcing will now be increasing, lapse rates and any
substantial instability will be missing. Things will translate
northeastward, with showers and thunderstorms reaching the Metro by
lunchtime, if not sooner. Early afternoon soundings lack CAPE, but
remain saturated. Hi-Res models continue to depict widespread rain
with embedded bands of heavier showers and thunderstorms as the
system moves through.

By this evening, RAP model soundings at Albert Lea depict the
reconstruction of the elevated mixed layer with decent elevated CAPE
around 800 J/kg. Tracing this to the surface, CAPE is cut in half
and CIN triples. If we are able to overachieve on clearing and rid
low level CIN this evening, the helicity is there to support the
SPC`s 2% tornado risk across far southern Minnesota. The threat
remains conditional on being able to recover CAPE and clear CIN.

On a broader scale, the stronger instability isn`t forecast to get
farther north than the I-90 corridor. Regardless, a few embedded
thunderstorms are likely across all of southern and central
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Guidance continues to show 1-2" QPF
for southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with higher end totals
more likely to the south. Isolated amounts in excess of 2" are
certainly possible in areas that are impacted by multiple rounds of
thunderstorms.

Taking a step back from precipitation, the low-level jet with this
system is impressive and is the reason for a (nearly) area wide Wind
Advisory this morning through this evening. A tightening
pressure gradient will likely squeeze out peak gusts of 40 to
45MPH. Adding showers and thunderstorms on top of the already
potent LLJ will only act to bring the stronger gusts down to the
surface more frequently. Winds should subside and become
northwesterly overnight as the surface low moves overhead. Winds
will rebound again on Wednesday, but to a lesser extreme (peak
gusts to 30-35MPH).

High pressure will move in by later in the week, with much cooler
temperatures taking place. Highs on Thursday will still be in the
50s, but only in the 40s on Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday
night lows will dip below freezing for most. This is around 5-10
degrees cooler than normal, but will feel much cooler than that due
to our recent warm temperatures. No significant precipitation is in
the forecast beyond Thursday, but temperatures will quickly return
to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Complicated TAF period with wind shear, thunder, and rain to
contend with. Generally speaking, a large system will bring
several waves of precipitation across the region today and
tonight. Thunder is possible with any one of these waves, but is
most likely this afternoon/evening. Winds will be out of the
east, with gusts near 45 kts possible, especially during one of
the showers/thunderstorms. Clouds will lower as well, with IFR
possible overnight.

KMSP...There is a chance for lightning this morning, but did not
include mention in the TAFs until later this afternoon when
confidence is higher in a line of showers and thunderstorms.
This is when the heaviest rain will fall, with IFR conditions
likely and LIFR conditions possible. Winds will be gusty out of
the east/southeast. Overnight winds will decrease leading to
wind shear once again.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...Rain/IFR early with MVFR late. Wind NW 20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-
     Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-
     Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St.
     Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...JRB