Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 171122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
622 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Issued at 520 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Surface analysis early this morning shows broad high pressure over
the Dakotas into MN/WI while a potent low pressure center is
located over central MO. Aloft, an upper level low is situated
atop the surface low while a ridge of high pressure sits to the
north, spread across the Dakotas into MN. The ridge over this
region will be reinforced by a ridge axis extending from the Deep
South into the Central Plains and this ridge will then poke north
into the Northern Plains. This building ridge will help squeeze
the low pressure system to the south away to the east, ending
precipitation over southern MN by around daybreak this morning and
allowing skies to gradually clear out across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley region today. As the ridge axis moves
across the region, the center of high pressure will slide
southeast, moving into the Ohio River Valley region by daybreak
Sunday morning. A swath of mid-upper level moisture on the
backside of the ridge will spell an increase in higher clouds this
evening through overnight tonight but no precipitation is
expected. Warmer temperatures are expected for today with the deep
high pressure and clearing skies. Highs will range through the
40s across the WFO MPX coverage area followed by lows tonight in
the 20s area-wide.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The main longer term concerns remain the snow chances late Monday
into Tuesday night and again late in the week.

Sunday still looks mild with some clouds still forecast to move
eastward during the day. Latest model trends they may not work
into western WI during the day. If this holds true, that region
should remain the warmest. We kept the lower and middle 40s for

The timing of the next trough brings moisture and weak forcing
into far western Minnesota late Monday. This spreads east Monday
night through Tuesday night at least. The trough weakens as it
moves through. Moisture/forcing weakens Tuesday so at the moment,
it appears any snow chances wont make it far into west central
Wisconsin. Forecast snow totals range less than 2 inches with
this system. This could change of course, depending on the
strength of the incoming trough and if it taps deeper moisture.

The Canadian and ECMWF were indicating a secondary trough moving
through the northern stream Wednesday. Small PoPs were indicated
with the blended model with this system. If the trends of the
ECWMF and Canadian models continue, we may have to increase
chances for Wednesday as well. Again, it looks like it mainly
affects the MN portion of the cwa.

Finally, the next and potentially more significant system arrives
later Thursday night and Friday as more western CONUS trough
energy moves into the region. This system looks rather warm as it
moves into the area Friday with mainly rain indicated at this time
with a rather warm boundary layer. This system will have to be
monitored for the potential of more significant weather into the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 520 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

High pressure will slide across the region today, allowing for
light/variable winds and mainly clear skies. As the high pressure
moves off to the east tonight through tomorrow, clouds will return
to western MN, creating upper level ceilings which will gradually
lower. By midday tomorrow, MVFR ceilings would not be
unreasonable, especially for the MN TAF sites. No precipitation
nor any visibility restrictions expected.

KMSP...No weather concerns through tonight, then ceilings are
likely to develop after daybreak. At this point, have kept
ceilings within VFR range but having MVFR ceilings around 18z or
shortly thereafter tomorrow cannot be ruled out.

MON...MVFR cigs likely. Wind ENE 10 kts.
TUE...MVFR cigs likely. Chc -RA/-SN. Wind E 5 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. MVFR cigs possible. Wind E 5 kts.




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