Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 152139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
439 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Benign Spring weather will prevail tonight & tomorrow as high
pressure dominates the area. Clear skies & calm winds are expected
tonight however no areas of fog are expected to develop like this
morning, as drier Canadian air continues to filter into the
region. Tomorrow will be our warmest day in a while as plenty of
sunshine & southerly winds will allow temperatures to reach the
mid-80s across much of the area

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at |319 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

After a quiet two days, we return to a more active weather pattern
beginning Thursday & continuing into the weekend. Increasing cloud
cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than Wednesday
but highs are still expected to reach the 80s area-wide. An
elongated area of low pressure will dip south from the Canadian
Prairies & drape a boundary across central MN Thursday which will
act as a forcing mechanism for at least some scattered
thunderstorm development across central MN Thursday afternoon.
Little in the way of precipitation is expected across our area
with only 0.1-0.25" of rain expected.

The better chance for showers & thunderstorms across the area
comes Friday afternoon into Saturday as a cold front slowly moves
across MN. The best instability will remain south of MN/WI with
only a few hundred Joules of MUCAPE & less than 30 kts of
effective bulk shear over our area so little in the way of severe
weather is expected. Heavy rain is possible given the slow
movement of the front & precipitable water values on the order of
1.0-1.5". Areas across southern MN could see rainfall amounts of
1-1.5" from Friday night into Saturday afternoon with the rest of
the area expected to see at least 0.5" of rain.

Drier air moves in as the front departs on Saturday with quiet &
seasonable weather expected Sunday & Monday. Models hint at
unsettled weather returning Tuesday-Wednesday as a shortwave digs
into the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 440 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

High confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Skies will
be mostly sunny, and light and variable winds will become
southwesterly for Wednesday at speeds circa 8 knots.

KMSP...No concerns.

Thu...VFR. Slgt Chc -SHRA in aftn. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc -SHRA/-TS/MVFR late. Wind SE 10 kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR possible. Likely -SHRA/-TS. Wind N 10-15 kts.




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