000
FXUS63 KMPX 180404
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1104 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain across far southern Minnesota late tonight into early
  tomorrow morning with the next chance of more widespread rain
  arriving early next week.

- Cooler overnight temperatures may lead to frost/freeze concerns
  through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The back edge of the cloud shield associated with the surface low
that brought us our 1-2" of rain yesterday is starting work into
western Minnesota early this afternoon. Showers have largely come to
an end with a few areas of drizzle still ongoing across western
Wisconsin. This cloud cover combined with strong cold air advection
on the backside of this system has kept temperatures in the 40s and
low 50s area wide today, with breezy northwest winds making it feel
even cooler. Even as this surface low continues to move across the
Great Lakes, these near/slightly below normal temperatures are
expected to continue with a weak cold front moving through early
tomorrow. This front will also be the focus for some showers late
tonight into early Thursday, mainly across the southern third of
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Up to a quarter inch of additional rainfall
is possible before we dry out through the weekend. Temperatures will
be slower to warm with strong CAA and a slow moving upper low
overhead through at least early Saturday. After our recent bout of
temperatures in the 70s and 80s, those who did any early planting
may need to take precautions as overnight lows are expected to fall
near or just below freezing tomorrow night through Sunday morning.

By Sunday, temperatures look to return to the upper 50s and low 60s
with this slight warming trend continuing through the end of the
period. After a period of dry weather, rain chances increase Monday
and Tuesday. Currently, QPF amounts are on the lower end with only a
few tenths to a quarter inch expected. Once this system moves
out, ridging will build in and we will see temperatures back in
the mid to upper 60s through much of next week with more
potential rain chances on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Rain quickly approaching southwest MN is expected to have its
northern edge setup between MKT and MSP, so the only site we
have precip mention left at is MKT, with the rain likely staying
just south of RWF/MSP/EAU. Thursday is looking like yet another
day with deep mixing, allowing for the occasional wind gust to
get up there around 30 kts and did boost wind speeds for Thu
afternoon from the previous TAF. We will likely some some
clearing of skies Thursday morning before a BKN-SCT stratocu
field develops in by the afternoon. This cloud deck will come in
between 6k and 8k feet thanks to the deep mixing.

KMSP...Rain will be close between 9z and 13z, but its expected
to make it about as far north as LVN. It looks like another
gusty day for Thursday, though with directions closer to 270.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15-25G30-40 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...MPG