Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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694 FXUS63 KMPX 302037 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather across south central Minnesota this evening. The main threats are damaging wind and large hail, along with the chance for an isolated tornado or two. - Unsettled weather pattern continues, with multiple chances for rain in the upcoming forecast. The next round of widespread rain will be Thursday, followed by additional rain chances Saturday and again early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A pleasant afternoon will quickly return to more rainfall and breezy conditions tonight. Visible satellite showing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies across much of central MN and cirrostratus over Western WI. Radar reflectivity returns an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with warm front now entering SW MN which stems from a larger surface low currently located over the SD/NE border. The rest of today, CAM guidance feels confident that this initial band of showers and storms will gradually weaken over SW MN. Over the next few hours into this evening, an upper-level trough will dig across the northern plains. The aforementioned surface low will continue across southern MN and the associated cold front will this system will tap into a suitable environment capable of producing strong to severe thunderstorms this evening across central and southern MN. Timing for the strongest convection reaching central MN should occur within the next couple of hours, the earliest the twin cities metro could see storms is 5 PM and most likely by 7 PM. Areas across western WI can expect the line of storms mainly after 8 PM into overnight. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Considering the amount of low level shear exceeding 30kts in today`s environment especially along the I-90 corridor, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Once this system departs to our east, we enter a shortwave train pattern. High pressure will briefly return Wednesday with partly cloudy skies and temperatures ranging in the mid 60s before our next wave tracks across northern MN by Thursday. Forecast guidance maintaining its confidence about likely PoPs once again across much of MN/WI for much of the day with QPF amounts ranging between another 0.5 to 1.0" of rain possible. There is also a marginal chance of severe thunderstorms across southeastern MN but the track of this low as well as health of the thermal environment will greatly decide our chances of seeing any severe convection Thursday afternoon. On and off chances for rain and thunder will continue through the remainder of the forecast period which aligns with the current CPC outlooks indicating a slightly warmer and wetter 14 day period. By Friday into early next week, temperatures will range in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s. By early next week, we will need to keep a close eye on another low that passes through Monday into Tuesday. Current track and environment would be suitable for more convection. Still lots on the table before specifics can be solidified but as mentioned in the previous discussion, keep the umbrella and rain slicker handy for the next several days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 While conditions are currently VFR, showers have already begun to develop and move into southern MN. Continual development is expected through this afternoon, with an eventual line of thunderstorms moving west to east across the southern half of MN and into WI late this afternoon and into this evening. Conditions will fall to at least MVFR with IFR likely within heavier storms. For southern MN terminals (MKT, RWF, and MSP), VFR expected after midnight after storms move through as skies clear out. Farther north, MVFR cigs will continue through Wednesday morning as overcast skies will be slower to clear. Southeasterly winds will increase to near 10 knots this afternoon and then flip to westerly after the storms and cold frontal passage this evening. Winds will increase overnight with sustained values of 15-20 knots and gusts of 25 to 30 knots before slowing towards sunrise Wednesday. 40 knot southwesterly LLWS is also likely for our southern and eastern terminals. KMSP...Adjusted TEMPO for thunderstorms to be from 00-02Z with conditions falling to IFR. Showers should end by 04Z while westerly winds will strengthen into Wednesday morning with gusts approaching 25-30 knots. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts. THU...MVFR/-SHRA. Chc IFR. Wind E 10-20G30 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...CTG