Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS63 KMPX 180042 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
742 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper low over the
northeast United States...shortwave ridging over the central United
States and upper level trough over the Rocky Mountains. Latest 19z
surface analysis indicates high pressure over southern Minnesota
providing mostly sunny skies across the forecast area.

Main focus tonight through Wednesday night is upper level
trough/closed upper level tracking into the Great Lakes region. The
17.12z deterministic GFS/NAM/ECMWF have shifted track of surface low
slightly further south than previous runs. This will have impacts on
location of where the deformation band of heavy snow sets up. As of
right now...heavy snow band location appears to be mainly along and
south of the Minnesota/Iowa border and impact the far southern
forecast area. At this time...confidence is high snow will fall
across much of the forecast area. However...confidence in snowfall
amounts is lower...based on slightly further track of system.
Expect snow to move into the forecast area after 06z Wednesday.
The deterministic models continue to indicate about elevated
CAPE in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Left mention of a slight
chance of thunder across the far southern forecast area Wednesday
morning. This will also potentially produce snowfall rates of 1
to 2 inches per hour mainly along and south of Interstate 90.
Total snowfall amounts are expected to be 4 to 6 inches along and
south of Interstate 90 with lesser amounts north. At this
time...no changes to headlines with the Winter Storm Warnings and
Advisories.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Thursday into Friday...Surface ridge over the eastern Dakotas and
central Minnesota becomes the dominant weather feature across the
forecast area and provides dry weather and slightly warmer
temperatures. High temperatures should climb into the 40s across the
forecast area both days.

Main forecast concerns Friday night into Tuesday are temperatures
Saturday into Monday...then precipitation chances Monday night into
Tuesday. The deterministic 17.12z GFS/ECMWF/GEM are in good
agreement with building upper level ridge into the Northern Plains
and Upper Great Lakes Region Saturday into Monday...then upper level
ridge breaks down and upper level trough moves into the Northern
Plains States Monday night into Tuesday. The deterministic models
are suggesting 925mb temperatures warming to plus 5 to plus 10
degrees celsius Saturday into Monday. This will allow temperatures
to warm into the middle 40s to middle to upper 50s across the
forecast area. With subsidence underneath upper level
ridge...expect dry weather Saturday into Monday. Upper level
trough and associated cold front moves across the forecast area
Monday night and into Tuesday. With moisture convergence and lift
along the cold front/upper level trough...this will provide
chances of rain across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 741 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR conditions until Wednesday morning when snow begins to move
into southern Minnesota. MVFR or IFR cigs are also possible to the
north of the snow. The worst conditions (possibly LIFR at times) will
impact RWF and MKT, although some light snow is possible as far
north as MSP and RNH.

KMSP...It still appears the snow will push in around early
afternoon and last for perhaps 4 to 6 hours. Accumulations look
light.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind N at 5 to 10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind light/vrb
Sat...VFR. Wind bec S at 5 kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Thursday
     for MNZ084-085-092-093.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Thursday
     for MNZ065-067-075>078-083.

     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ091.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MNZ054-064-073-074-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ (WFO ARX)
LONG TERM...DTJ (WFO ARX)
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.