Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 240802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Early morning water vapor and radar imagery with 500mb heights/winds
and surface obs showed an area of vorticity and precipitation across
the Dakotas. This area of vorticity will get sheared out over the
next 24 hours as a northern stream shortwave trough moves along the
international border. As a result the precipitation should dissipate
as it moves across Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Today will have increasing clouds with a few rain showers across
western Minnesota, and perhaps some sprinkles elsewhere. A cold
front will push through the region and bring northerly winds with
afternoon gusts of around 15 mph. Highs will reach the lower 60s
across the southeast, but only manage the upper 50s across the
northwest. Tonight high pressure will quickly move in and winds will
go calm. Overnight lows will hoover around the freezing mark.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Continued the trend of the previous forecast with lowering pops on
Thursday, and increasing high temperatures on Sunday and Monday.
Another positively tilted trough will move across the Upper Midwest
on Thursday. The moisture is marginal, and the strong ridge crashing
behind it lend some concern as to whether or not this trough and the
low level cold front that accompanies it will pass through the
region dry. Winds will pick up behind it, so should have breezy
conditions on Thursday.

Looking ahead, surface high pressure will build in across the north
Friday and Saturday. Upper level ridging across the ROckies will
bring warmer temperatures for later this weekend as southerly flow
develops on the back side of the surface high pressure. Eventually
an upper level cutoff low across the Western Conus will make its way
eastward and cause a lee-side cyclone to develop along with a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty in this pattern,
and the model differences arise early next week so did not stray
from the blended guidance. Regardless, there is potential for more
active weather across the Upper Midwest next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions through the period. Mid level clouds will increase
late tonight and Tuesday morning, with clearing expected mid
afternoon. Light or calm winds tonight will increase from the
north with some gusts of 20 kts possible Tuesday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

Wed...VFR. Wind light/variable.
Thu...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming NW 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.




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