Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 241616

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1116 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.UPDATE for 18z taf discussion below...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Have trimmed the advisory/warning areas this morning per radar
and Hi-res model trends. Expect the most impressive amounts (10+
inches) in south central MN, especially near the Iowa border.
Amounts in the 6-9 inch ranch still look plausible up toward the
MN River valley, with rapid tapering north and east of there. Have
extended the warning until 18Z given precip looks a bit slower to
wane, especially over south central MN. Winds will also be brisk
from the east. In the wake of the precip, skies stay cloudy
through the day, with gradual scattering from east to west
overnight. Highs today will range from 35 to 40 degrees, with lows
tonight mostly from 20-25 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

We see a brief break in the precip on Sunday, although southwest
flow develops and instigates warm air/moisture advection that
increases Sunday night and Monday. Categorical precip chances
still look like a good bet. Progged soundings still indicate the
potential for a rain/snow mix primarily during the nocturnal time
frames. Liquid precipitation amounts generally look to range from
.30 to .50 inches.

After Tuesday, fairly mild temperatures develop as westerly flow
aloft dominates, with highs in the 40s and possibly lower 50s. By
Friday we see a northern stream trough dip into the north central
CONUS, which will reduce temps back into the 30s for highs.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Snow dropped just south of the KMKT airfield this morning. KRWF is
about to end as well. Will bring up to VFR shortly with the rest
of the area seeing mix of mid/high level clouds into tonight. May
see some clouds move back in/develop later tonight ahead of the
next system, but feel all sites will remain VFR. E winds a bit
gusty at times this afternoon over the east, will become
southeast and increase into Sunday.

No concerns.

SUN Nite...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
MON...MVFR with CHC -SN in the morning, then RA. Wind SE 10 kts.
TUE...VFR with CHC MVFR/-RA. Wind NW 10 kts.


MN...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ054-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ085.



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