Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 180250

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
950 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.UPDATE...For 06Z Aviation discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

As anticipated, frontal boundary is draped across the forecast
area this afternoon with warm air pooling along the southern side
of it. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and even a few
90s across west central MN to the east generally along the MN
River Valley.

Just a couple isolated showers have popped today along the
boundary, otherwise it`s mainly just been a normal cu field that`s
developed. All the action is taking place well to our west in the
vicinity of the upper level support from the shortwave over the
western Dakotas. Dry easterly/southerly flow will continue to keep
our area dry through tonight.

The disturbance across the Dakotas will remain largely
stationary tonight as the low deepens, but the guidance agrees in
little movement of the forcing and hence indicate the storms
across the Dakotas will run out of instability as they work east
and hence fall apart before reaching our area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

The main focus in the long term is the potential for rain this
weekend. The forecast remained on course from the previous, with
just a slight chance for rain on Saturday as the main frontal
boundary/source of ascent remains off to our west. The GFS
continues to insist very little coverage of precipitation this
weekend in eastern MN and western WI, with better chances of rain
across western MN.

High pressure looks to build in from the north Sunday, which would
suppress the developing cyclone along the lee of the Rockies to
the south. The guidance does indicate this cyclone advancing
northeast but decaying as it reaches our area and with the dry air
from the Canadian high in place, there is a good amount of
uncertainty in us seeing much at all in the way of precipitation.
For now, continued with a less than 50% forecast.

For next week, ridging and warm temperatures are expected with
few signs of appreciable precipitation. There is a potential
system late in the week but at this time it looks to follow the
jet stream to our north, keeping the forcing north of our area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with sct-bkn mid
and high clouds. The shower and thunderstorm complex over eastern
North Dakota is expected to stay west and north of the sites
tonight. Southeast winds stay AOA 10 knots overnight, then become
gusty on Friday (gusts generally between 20 and 25 knots). Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to be approaching west central MN
(KAXN) on Friday evening.

KMSP...No concerns.


Saturday...VFR. Slight chc of -SHRA, mainly late. Vrbl wind becmg
NNE 10 kt.
Sunday...VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind E 5-15 kt.
Monday...VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 10-20 kt.




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