Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 131913

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
213 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Little concern in the near term. Northwest flow aloft will
continue to spill some high clouds southeast over the cwa
overnight. Meanwhile, the next cold front is progged into the
northern CWA early Wednesday morning and exiting the south in the
afternoon. Some warming ahead the front with mix down procedure
from around 900mb yielding the upper 40s to the southwest. Will
trim temperatures somewhat over the northern cwa as the front
exits during the morning. It will remain dry with perhaps a few
cumulus into the afternoon with fropa, but mainly over the
northeast cwa.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

The longer term remains quiet into the weekend. The blocking upper
ridging remains in place over the northern plains/western Great
Lakes through this time with the the east and west CONUS troughs
as well. The deterministic models try and drive some energy
through the western CONUS trough toward the Northern Plains early
next week, but the latest ECMWF moves that farther south,
affecting perhaps the southern third of the cwa next
Monday/Tuesday. The GFS drives the energy farther north. Still a
lot of uncertainty on overall development and placement of any
surface features with these systems. Will leave the blended
guidance PoPs for now.

We should see the snow cover retreat farther north into far
southern MN during the next few days. This will affect overall
high temperature potential and we may begin to see some
fog/visibility issues develop. Overall, we should warm above
normal again by the weekend/mainly 40s for highs/ then cool again
if the model trend continues.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR conditions throughout period. Surface winds will diminish this
afternoon from west to east becoming s-sw and then becoming nw-w
with fropa which works into the northwest cwa Wed morning. Just
high clouds expected with this system with perhaps a few cumulus
developing behind front Wed afternoon.

No concerns.

WED night...VFR. Wind N at 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NE at 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind E at 5-10 kts.




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