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000
FNUS73 KMPX 131621
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for cedar creek rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1121 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on April 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Cedar Creek Rx fire, elevated fire weather conditions will
be in place across the area at ignition time. Relative humidity
will be near 35% around ignition and is expected to fall into the
20s this afternoon. Southerly winds between 10-15 mph at ignition
will turn more southwesterly this afternoon, with gusts up to 25
at times. Given the elevated conditions, rapid fire spread will
be possible.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 78.
RH..................38 percent at ignition...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 15 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 14 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /43400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /95800 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P
Sky cover.......MCR CLR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  66  72  75  76  78  76  75  71  65  62  60
RH..............38  34  30  28  30  29  32  34  42  54  62  64
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..15  17  16  16  15  14  13  8   6   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.23  26  25  24  24  22  20  13  13  10  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.2 4.4 2.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.22  25  26  28  25  25  20  9   9   10  10  10
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Min 45.
RH..................Max 82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 13 mph shifting to the
                    north 6 to 7 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (36500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 mph decreasing to around 9
                    mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    north 10 to 16 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Lisa Mueller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410618.1/MPX
.DELDT 04/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lisa.mueller@state.mn.us