115
FNUS73 KMPX 301627
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Long Lake...FWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1127 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on April 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Long Lake Rx Burn, showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop across South Dakota and southwestern
Minnesota through early this afternoon. The ongoing storms near
Aberdeen will not impact Stevens County, but as the line continues
to fill in to the south, expect chances to ramp up quickly after
1-2pm. I cannot guarantee that you`ll get a full two hour window
at this point in time, but it will be awfully close. Winds will
turn more southerly as the showers and storm approach with gusts
increasing to around 25 MPH.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Rain showers and thunderstorms
                    likely early in the afternoon, then showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........54 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................77 percent at ignition...Min 67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 13 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 13 to 15
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /26700 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /56100 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 26 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....    CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC
Temp............54  57  58  58  58  58  58  57  55  53  52  51
RH..............77  67  69  72  77  80  80  86  90  89  86  80
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..13  15  15  15  14  13  12  10  12  14  16  17
20 FT wind gust.21  21  22  22  23  22  21  16  18  21  24  26
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.18  20  24  26  18  22  16  16  14  16  23  25
Haines index....5   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 41.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    west 14 to 21 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 16 mph shifting to the west 14
                    to 23 mph early in the evening, then increasing
                    to 17 to 25 mph late in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (95500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to good (49200 knot-ft)
                    early in the morning increasing to excellent
                    (106400 knot-ft) in the afternoon late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 23 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Millette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412807.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov